Election night·Nov 3, 2026

Results against the forecasts

Twelve DegreesBuilt Tue Nov 3, 3:41 PM ETDetails: every analyst’s barAbout

Tue Nov 3, 3:41 PM ET

Checklist

0–3 checksNo wave2024 repeat · up to ≈D+2
4–8 checksA typical midtermavg. midterm · ≈D+2 to D+6
9–12 checksA strong midterm, 2018-size2018-size · ≈D+6 to D+8
13–15 checksThe forecast wave, 1994-size1994-size · ≈D+8 to D+10
16–18 checksBigger than forecastpast 1994 · ≈D+10 to D+13
19–22 checksHistoric, 2010-size or more2010-size · ≈D+13 or more

While the race calls are quantitative and decide control, this checklist is a qualitative look at the night. These 22 checks run from likely to long shot, so misses are built in: even the forecast’s wave would miss about 8. Treat the tier as a rough guide; a night exactly as forecast lands anywhere from 11 to 16 checks. How far the count runs ahead of or behind par, especially early, hints at the size of the night.

Par 13.6 (the dotted mark) sits in the forecast wave. Tiers compare the night with past midterms; the forecasts already expect a 1994-size wave.

Show the 22 checks

Par for the night is 13.6 of 22: the number Democrats get if the night goes exactly as forecast. That is “The forecast wave, 1994-size” (13 to 15 checks): the forecasts expect a 1994-size swing (see the history rungs).

Chances: Split Ticket race odds on The Argument (Senate table Hus3x v19 and House table Cy0fK v25, both Nov 2, 2026, about 04:30 UTC). KY-06 is a margin check, from Split Ticket’s margin and odds. The Railroad Commissioner race has no model odds and is set at 50% because analysts call it a toss-up. Tiers: past midterm swings, moved onto each check with Split Ticket’s margins; see About.

Senate

Forecast ladder 17 Senate forecasts run from 50.5 to 53.3 Democratic seats; 15 put Democrats at a majority

Forecasts run from fewest to most Democratic seats.

  1. Almanac of American Politicsratings · Oct 1547–54
  2. Cook Political Reportratings · Oct 3047–54
  3. Fox News Power Rankings (final)ratings · Oct 2948–54
  4. Matt Yglesias (Politix)pundit · Oct 2851
  5. Polymarketmarket · Nov 251
  6. 270toWin consensusratings · Oct 2349–54
  7. Decision Desk HQmodel · Nov 252
  8. Inside Electionsratings · Oct 2950–54
  9. Split Ticket (The Argument)model · Nov 252
  10. Abramowitz generic-ballot model (Crystal Ball)model · Oct 2953
  11. Brian Beutler (Politix)pundit · Oct 2853
  12. FiftyPlusOnemodel · Nov 253
  13. Sabato's Crystal Ball (final)ratings · Nov 253
  14. Silver Bulletinmodel · Classic, Deluxe, Lite · Nov 3Classic 53Deluxe 53Lite 53
  15. RacetotheWHmodel · Nov 253.3
455055
  • Majority
  • History rung
  • Secured now
  • How a line is set
  • Model
  • Ratings
  • Market
  • Pundit

Model median 53 seats (middle half 52.8–53). The dashed lines translate past midterm swings into 2026 seats; each (i) says how.

Sources and method
  • How the rungs are set. The out-party swing in the national House vote margin at each midterm (1994 +12.2, 1998 +0.5, 2002 -4.3, 2006 +9.0, 2010 +17.2, 2014 +6.5, 2018 +9.6, 2022 +5.6) averages 7.0 points (median 7.75); with presidential approval under 50% it averages 10.0 (median 9.3). Each swing is added to the 2024 margin of R+2.5 and turned into 2026 seats with Split Ticket’s seats-by-environment table, by straight-line interpolation. These are estimates.
  • Caveat. The Brookings vote figures exclude unopposed districts, and the seat curve is one model’s (Split Ticket’s).
  • Model median 53, middle half of the 8 model forecasts 52.8–53.
  • Ratings rows run from the lean-D seats to all toss-ups won. Silver Bulletin versions share one row, each dot labelled by version.

Sources: 270toWin consensus, Abramowitz generic-ballot model (Crystal Ball), Almanac of American Politics, Brian Beutler (Politix), Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Fox News Power Rankings (final), Inside Elections, Matt Yglesias (Politix), Polymarket, RacetotheWH, Sabato's Crystal Ball (final), Silver Bulletin FLIPR Classic, Silver Bulletin FLIPR Deluxe, Silver Bulletin FLIPR Lite, Split Ticket (The Argument); each row shows its date. History: Brookings Vital Statistics on Congress, Table 2-2 (excludes unopposed districts); seats: Split Ticket seats-by-environment table, Nov 2, 2026.

House

Forecast ladder 16 House forecasts run from 224 to 242 Democratic seats; 16 put Democrats in the majority

Forecasts run from fewest to most Democratic seats.

  1. Polymarketmarket · Nov 2224.5
  2. 270toWin consensusratings · Oct 23220–239
  3. Inside Electionsratings · Oct 29224–237
  4. Cook Political Reportratings · Oct 30222–240
  5. Fox News Power Rankings (final)ratings · Oct 29223–240
  6. Matt Yglesias (Politix)pundit · Oct 28235
  7. RacetotheWHmodel · Nov 2236.9
  8. Abramowitz generic-ballot model (Crystal Ball)model · Oct 29239
  9. Sabato's Crystal Ball (final)ratings · Nov 2239
  10. Split Ticket (The Argument)model · Oct 31239
  11. Silver Bulletinmodel · Lite, Classic, Deluxe · Nov 3Lite 239Classic 241Deluxe 241
  12. Decision Desk HQmodel · Nov 2241
  13. FiftyPlusOnemodel · Nov 2241
  14. Brian Beutler (Politix)pundit · Oct 28242
200210220230240250260
  • Majority
  • History rung
  • Secured now
  • How a line is set
  • Model
  • Ratings
  • Market
  • Pundit

Model median 240 seats (middle half 239–241). The dashed lines translate past midterm swings into 2026 seats; each (i) says how.

Sources and method
  • How the rungs are set. The out-party swing in the national House vote margin at each midterm (1994 +12.2, 1998 +0.5, 2002 -4.3, 2006 +9.0, 2010 +17.2, 2014 +6.5, 2018 +9.6, 2022 +5.6) averages 7.0 points (median 7.75); with presidential approval under 50% it averages 10.0 (median 9.3). Each swing is added to the 2024 margin of R+2.5 and turned into 2026 seats with Split Ticket’s seats-by-environment table, by straight-line interpolation. These are estimates.
  • Caveat. The Brookings vote figures exclude unopposed districts, and the seat curve is one model’s (Split Ticket’s).
  • Model median 240, middle half of the 8 model forecasts 239–241.
  • Ratings rows run from the lean-D seats to all toss-ups won. Silver Bulletin versions share one row, each dot labelled by version.

Sources: 270toWin consensus, Abramowitz generic-ballot model (Crystal Ball), Brian Beutler (Politix), Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Fox News Power Rankings (final), Inside Elections, Matt Yglesias (Politix), Polymarket, RacetotheWH, Sabato's Crystal Ball (final), Silver Bulletin FLIPR Classic, Silver Bulletin FLIPR Deluxe, Silver Bulletin FLIPR Lite, Split Ticket (The Argument); each row shows its date. History: Brookings Vital Statistics on Congress, Table 2-2 (excludes unopposed districts); seats: Split Ticket seats-by-environment table, Nov 2, 2026.

Governors

Market odds table Polymarket prices for the 21 governor races it lists

States

Chambers before the election Current seats in each chamber, with the majority line

About this page

What it does. It sets results against takes registered before the polls closed: the published forecasts, history, and a checklist of 22 yes-or-no checks. The live view reads one state file. Calls come from AP and are entered by hand by Andrew or Karen; nothing on this page is called automatically.

History, in votes. The rungs translate past midterm swings in the national House vote into 2026 seats. The out-party swing averaged 7.0 points over the eight midterms from 1994 to 2022, and 10.0 points when the president’s approval was under 50%. Starting from 2024’s R+2.5, Split Ticket’s seat table turns those swings into seats. Forecasts expect a 1994-size swing; on 2026 maps that is about 240 House seats. That swing, about 11.7 points, is larger than 2018, 2006, 2014. So a night on forecast is already a historically large one. The Brookings figures exclude unopposed districts, and the seat curve is one model’s.

The checklist. Each check has Split Ticket’s pre-election chance. Par, the sum of the chances, is 13.63. The tiers compare the night with past midterms. Each check’s chance is moved to other national environments with Split Ticket’s margin and spread for that race, from its D+9 baseline (Split Ticket’s median of 239 House seats is its D+9 row): a repeat of 2024 (R+2.5) gives about 1.1 checks, a typical midterm swing (D+4.5) 6.9, a 2018-size swing (D+7.1) 10.7, the forecast (D+9) 13.6, a 1994-size swing (D+9.7) 14.6, D+12 17.5 and a 2010-size swing (D+14.7) 19.8. The cut points sit midway between those benchmarks: 4, 9, 13, 16, 19 checks. Par falls in “The forecast wave, 1994-size”. The KS Senate check replaced MN Senate in an audit before the freeze, because MN (91%) carried little signal; NC Senate (98%) stays as one of the races named when the checklist was set, though it carries little signal too. The page says “Too early to tell” until 5 checks have settled and it is past 7:30 PM ET; after that it sets the checks met against the par so far, the sum of the chances of the checks settled so far, and says whether Democrats are running ahead of it, on it, or behind it (a gap of one check or more). The tiers describe the whole night, so during the night the strip shows where Democrats are on pace for: the checks met plus the chances of the checks still open, placed on the tier cut points. The tier is shown as final only once every check has settled, or after 2:00 AM ET.

Per-race chances. Senate and House from Split Ticket. Governors from Polymarket prices (a market snapshot taken Mon Nov 2, 3:49 PM ET), labelled “market odds”, because Split Ticket publishes none. Polymarket lists 21 of the 36 governor races; the other 15 show no chance.

Live odds. Polymarket chamber-control prices are read by your own browser from Polymarket’s public API, every 90 seconds while this page is open and visible, each with the time it was read and a link to the market. This site does not store or relay them. If the read fails, or the editors pause it, the page shows the snapshot from Mon Nov 2, 3:49 PM ET, marked as such. The NYT needle values are typed in by hand from the NYT’s page, each with the time it was read; this page never fetches anything from the NYT. Markets swing hard on early, unrepresentative counts.

Why Kalshi is absent. Kalshi’s data terms bar publicly displaying its prices without written permission, and its API agreement limits use to a member’s own trading. So this page shows no Kalshi numbers. Its markets are at kalshi.com.

What the results so far look like. Once 8 competitive results have settled (called Senate and House races at 15–85% by Split Ticket, plus the settled checks), the page finds the national environment that best explains them: each race’s chance is moved with its Split Ticket margin and spread, as for the tiers, and the most likely environment is read off a grid from R+4 to D+16, with a rough 80% range. Early calls skew toward easy races, every race is assumed to move together, and it uses one model (Split Ticket). Governors are left out: Split Ticket has no governor margins.

Toss-ups and stars. Each tab names the toss-ups that decide it, after the idea in the National Journal Hotline, The Insider's Guide to the Midterms (Cook ratings as of Oct 27): the seats leaning or safe by Split Ticket (60% or more for either side) form the base, and the chips are the races Split Ticket gives Democrats a 30–70% chance, plus Hotline’s toss-ups (its top 10 for the House; Polymarket prices and Hotline’s toss-ups for governors). A chip fills when AP calls the race. The Target states tab follows the chambers, statewide offices and contested followed legislators in 14 states. “Majority reached” appears only when called seats settle control; Republicans keep the Senate at 50–50 through the vice president. The star on a race keeps it in “My races” and alerts you when it is called; stars stay in this browser only.

Every analyst’s bar, hour by hour, is on the Details page.

Built Tue Nov 3, 3:41 PM ET. Frozen at Tue Nov 3, 3:41 PM ET. The checklist and the analysts’ bars are not edited after the freeze; these SHA-256 hashes let anyone check that: