Election night 2026 details: every analyst's bar, hour by hour

Before the polls close

First polls close at 6:00 pm ET on Tuesday, Nov 3

Polls close first in the Eastern-time parts of Indiana and Kentucky. These are the first numbers to watch.

Times are Eastern (ET).

IN-05 · BarGreat night

D (J.D. Ford) wins

“it's going to be a really, really, really good night”

Jeff Singer, Managing editor, The Downballot (episode description)

Oct 29, 2026 · Podcast

“Indiana's 5th of what they would say,oh boy, it's going to be a really, really, really good night.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 6:00 pm ET. IN-05 is in Eastern time. Medium: most ballots counted by noon Wednesday in 2022 and 2024 (NYT). Most of state closes 18 ET, Central-time NW/SW counties 19 ET.

KY-06 · BarGreat night

D loses narrowly (close) → very good night still possible

“Democrats still have a very good night”

David Nir, Publisher, The Downballot (podcast intro)

Oct 29, 2026 · Podcast

“keep your mind open for the possibility that Democrats still have a very good night.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 6:00 pm ET. KY-06 (Lexington area) is in Eastern time. Fast: nearly all votes counted by midnight in 2024 (NYT). Eastern-time counties close 18 ET, Central 19 ET.

IN-05 · BarGreat night

D margin close to even or D ahead

“a sign of low Republican turnout and a bigger Democratic wave”

Domenico Montanaro, NPR (byline; title not shown on page)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“If these are close or tipping to Democrats, it could be a sign of low Republican turnout and a bigger Democratic wave.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 6:00 pm ET. IN-05 is in Eastern time. Medium: most ballots counted by noon Wednesday in 2022 and 2024 (NYT). Most of state closes 18 ET, Central-time NW/SW counties 19 ET.
2024 baseline: A swing of about 16.8 points toward D from 2024 (IN-05 was -16.8 for Harris, 2024 presidential).

Go to this hour in the timeline

Filter the markers

Race Analyst Tier

House and Senate totals

The national numbers, two ways: the bars analysts set for a fair, good or great night, and the seat totals they predicted. They build all night and may not settle until Wednesday or later.

Bars analysts set

Conditional bars: if Democrats reach this number, the analyst calls it this kind of night.

House seats

218 seats is a majority. Democrats hold 214 now.

Tier	The number	In their words	Who
Fair / floor	D+6 nationally, ~227 D House seats, Senate net D+3	fair (mood turned, doesn't stop Trump) (paraphrase)	Politix hosts
Necessary condition	D+8 to D+10 may still mean 50 D seats; ~1 pt better → 53-54		Politix hosts
Good night	D seats ≥ 50 (NC, OH, ME pickups) = floor	“which would be a good night that felt like death”	Addisu Demissie
Great night	D net House gain ~20 and D wins AK, NC, ME Senate only = blue wave	“they range from blue wave, to big ass blue wave, to blue tsunami”	Rachel Bitecofer

Senate seats

51 seats is a majority (50 plus the vice president is R control). Democrats caucus with 47 now.

Tier	The number	In their words	Who
Warning sign	D net gain ≤ 2 (51-49 R) = success for Republicans	“a success not for Democrats, but for Republicans”	Kyle Kondik
Fair / floor	D+6 nationally, ~227 D House seats, Senate net D+3	fair (mood turned, doesn't stop Trump) (paraphrase)	Politix hosts
Fair / floor	D flips NC, TX, ME, OH and holds MI = bare majority	“minimum viable product”	Nate Silver
Necessary condition	D+8 to D+10 may still mean 50 D seats; ~1 pt better → 53-54		Politix hosts
Good night	D seats ≥ 50 (NC, OH, ME pickups) = floor	“which would be a good night that felt like death”	Addisu Demissie
Good night	D Senate seats ≥ 52	“the real number”	Politix hosts
Great night	D 50-51 with OH + TX; 52-54 adds IA/AK/KS; D wins NE/SC/MS = wave	“Then let's get weird with NE/SC/MS in a wave.”	Addisu Demissie
Great night	D+9 nationally with 5-6 Senate flips	great (the big outcome) (paraphrase)	Politix hosts
Great night	majority secured without AK and ME → election-night call	“Alaska- and Maine-proof majority”	Nathaniel Rakich
Great night	D net +6-7 = big wave from low GOP turnout; +1-2 otherwise	“netting one or two seats and picking up six or seven”	Domenico Montanaro
Great night	D natl margin ≥ +11 and D net Senate gain ≥ 7	“a mega-tsunami the likes of which we haven't seen in decades”	Sean Trende
Great night	D net Senate gain 1-2 = normal wave	“a normal wave election is D+1, maybe D+2 in the senate”	Sean Trende
Great night	D net House gain ~20 and D wins AK, NC, ME Senate only = blue wave	“they range from blue wave, to big ass blue wave, to blue tsunami”	Rachel Bitecofer
Great night	D also wins OH, IA, TX, KS, NE Senate = big ass blue wave	“B.A.B.W.”	Rachel Bitecofer

National vote and exit polls

The national margin and who turned out.

Tier	The number	In their words	Who
Fair / floor	D+6 nationally, ~227 D House seats, Senate net D+3	fair (mood turned, doesn't stop Trump) (paraphrase)	Politix hosts
Good night	R share of independents < 46%	“Republicans have done well”	Domenico Montanaro
Good night	D party-ID share of electorate far above 31%	“far higher than 31%”	Domenico Montanaro
Good night	D margin with 18-29 > +20	“they have done well”	Domenico Montanaro
Great night	D+9 nationally with 5-6 Senate flips	great (the big outcome) (paraphrase)	Politix hosts
Great night	Rs vote 10-15% D and independents break hard D = blue wave	“A “blue wave” won’t come from D turnout (alone)”	Addisu Demissie

Governors and legislatures

Counts across the states.

Tier	The number	In their words	Who
Warning sign	D lose more than a handful of 'good' races	“could leave them disappointed, or worse”	Ronald Brownstein

Model reference: what each national margin implies

Split Ticket’s model, seats by national environment (chart data dated Nov 2, 2026). A model output, not an analyst’s bar.

National margin	House D seats	Senate D seats
D+4	217	48
D+5	220	49
D+6	225	50
D+7	229	51
D+8	234	52
D+9	239	53
D+10	244	54
D+11	249	55

Source: Split Ticket on The Argument, Datawrapper 91VuY v5.

All national marker cards (51)

US-Senate · BarWarning sign

D net gain ≤ 2 (51-49 R) = success for Republicans

“a success not for Democrats, but for Republicans”

Kyle Kondik (Crystal Ball final ratings byline), Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball (byline)

Nov 2, 2026 · Substack

“Such a result now would be a success not for Democrats, but for Republicans, who now appear to be underdogs”

Check it: DDHQ (free)
Readable: Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.

natl-composite · BarWarning sign

D lose more than a handful of 'good' races

“could leave them disappointed, or worse”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“lose more than a handful of the races in the “good” category, it will indicate the results could leave them disappointed, or worse.”

Readable: Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.

natl-generic · BarFair / floor

D+6 nationally, ~227 D House seats, Senate net D+3

fair (mood turned, doesn't stop Trump) (paraphrase, not a quote)

Politix hosts, Matt Yglesias and Brian Beutler (speaker not confirmed), Co-hosts, Politix podcast (Yglesias: Slow Boring; Beutler: Off Message) Unattributed

Oct 28, 2026 · Podcast

Readable: Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.

US-Senate · BarFair / floor

D flips NC, TX, ME, OH and holds MI = bare majority

“minimum viable product”

Nate Silver, Founder, Silver Bulletin (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Substack

“Democrats basically achieve “minimum viable product” by flipping North Carolina, Texas, Maine and Ohio, and just barely holding onto Michigan.”

Check it: DDHQ (free)
Readable: Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.

US-Senate · BarNecessary condition

D+8 to D+10 may still mean 50 D seats; ~1 pt better → 53-54

Politix hosts, Matt Yglesias and Brian Beutler (speaker not confirmed), Co-hosts, Politix podcast (Yglesias: Slow Boring; Beutler: Off Message) Unattributed

Oct 28, 2026 · Podcast

Check it: DDHQ (free)
Readable: Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.

county:Tarrant TX; county:Washoe NV; Cobb County GA school board · BarGood night

D flips these local governments/boards

“other major things Dems could flip in a good night”

Daniel Nichanian, Editor in chief, Bolts (Bluesky bio)

Oct 29, 2026 · Bluesky

“—the local gov of Tarrant County, Texas —the local gov of Washoe County, Nevada —the school board of Cobb County, Georgia”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.

US-Senate · BarGood night

D Senate seats ≥ 52

“the real number”

Politix hosts, Matt Yglesias and Brian Beutler (speaker not confirmed), Co-hosts, Politix podcast (Yglesias: Slow Boring; Beutler: Off Message) Unattributed

Oct 28, 2026 · Podcast

Check it: DDHQ (free)
Readable: Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.

natl-generic · BarGood night

R share of independents < 46%

“Republicans have done well”

Domenico Montanaro, NPR (byline; title not shown on page)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“Republicans have done well when they win at least 46% of independents. When they haven't, they've lost.”

Readable: Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.

natl-generic · BarGood night

D party-ID share of electorate far above 31%

“far higher than 31%”

Domenico Montanaro, NPR (byline; title not shown on page)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“they are likely going to have to be far higher than 31% as a share of the electorate to do well.”

Readable: Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.

natl-generic · BarGood night

D margin with 18-29 > +20

“they have done well”

Domenico Montanaro, NPR (byline; title not shown on page)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“In the last 20 years, when Democrats won this group by more than 20 points, they have done well”

Readable: Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.

US-Senate · BarGood night

D seats ≥ 50 (NC, OH, ME pickups) = floor

“which would be a good night that felt like death”

Addisu Demissie, Democratic strategist: 'I do politics ... Fmr CM @CoryBooker & @GavinNewsom' (X bio); 50+1 Strategies (50p1.com)

Oct 27, 2026 · X

“This is why my floor is 50 (NC, OH, ME would be the 3 pickups), which would be a good night that felt like death.”

Check it: DDHQ (free)
Readable: Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.

US-Senate · BarGreat night

majority secured without AK and ME → election-night call

“Alaska- and Maine-proof majority”

Nathaniel Rakich, Managing editor, Votebeat; ex-FiveThirtyEight (Bluesky bio)

Nov 1, 2026 · Bluesky

“I think one party needs an Alaska- and Maine-proof majority if we're going to get a call on election night this year.”

Check it: DDHQ (free)
Readable: Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.

natl-generic · BarGreat night

D+9 nationally with 5-6 Senate flips

great (the big outcome) (paraphrase, not a quote)

Politix hosts, Matt Yglesias and Brian Beutler (speaker not confirmed), Co-hosts, Politix podcast (Yglesias: Slow Boring; Beutler: Off Message) Unattributed

Oct 28, 2026 · Podcast

Readable: Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.

US-Senate · BarGreat night

D net +6-7 = big wave from low GOP turnout; +1-2 otherwise

“netting one or two seats and picking up six or seven”

Domenico Montanaro, NPR (byline)

Oct 30, 2026 · Web

“Low GOP turnout could mean the difference between Democrats netting one or two seats and picking up six or seven.”

Check it: DDHQ (free)
Readable: Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.

US-Senate · BarGreat night

D 50-51 with OH + TX; 52-54 adds IA/AK/KS; D wins NE/SC/MS = wave

“Then let's get weird with NE/SC/MS in a wave.”

Addisu Demissie, Democratic strategist: 'I do politics ... Fmr CM @CoryBooker & @GavinNewsom' (X bio); 50+1 Strategies (50p1.com)

Oct 27, 2026 · X

“Those two are 50-51 imo. Then we get to the IA/AK/KS cluster for 52-54. Then let's get weird with NE/SC/MS in a wave.”

Check it: DDHQ (free)
Readable: Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.

natl-generic · BarGreat night

Rs vote 10-15% D and independents break hard D = blue wave

“A “blue wave” won’t come from D turnout (alone)”

Addisu Demissie, Democratic strategist: 'I do politics ... Fmr CM @CoryBooker & @GavinNewsom' (X bio); 50+1 Strategies (50p1.com)

Oct 30, 2026 · X

“A “blue wave” won’t come from D turnout (alone), but from Is breaking hard D and Rs staying home/voting 10-15% D.”

Readable: Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.

US-Senate · BarGreat night

D net Senate gain 1-2 = normal wave

“a normal wave election is D+1, maybe D+2 in the senate”

Sean Trende, Sr. Elections Analyst, RealClearPolitics; Visiting Scholar, AEI; Lecturer, Ohio State (X bio). Classed nonpartisan per schema: analyst at a center-right outlet, no party or candidate work stated in bio

Oct 31, 2026 · X

“People forget that a normal wave election is D+1, maybe D+2 in the senate on this map.”

Check it: DDHQ (free)
Readable: Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.

natl-generic/US-Senate · BarGreat night

D natl margin ≥ +11 and D net Senate gain ≥ 7

“a mega-tsunami the likes of which we haven't seen in decades”

Nov 1, 2026 · X

“doesn't necessarily entail D+11 and seven Senate seats. That would be a mega-tsunami the likes of which we haven't seen in decades.”

Readable: Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.

US-House/US-Senate · BarGreat night

D net House gain ~20 and D wins AK, NC, ME Senate only = blue wave

“they range from blue wave, to big ass blue wave, to blue tsunami”

Rachel Bitecofer, Bio: 'National political analyst/forecaster/pollster, strategist & editor of The Cycle on Substack ... This account kills fascism.' D evidence: co-founder of Strike PAC, a Democratic super PAC (background, not in bio)

Nov 2, 2026 · X

“BW: Ds flip House with about a 20 seat net but only win 3 of the red state senate races (Alaska, NC, Maine)”

Check it: DDHQ (free)
Readable: Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.

US-Senate · BarGreat night

D also wins OH, IA, TX, KS, NE Senate = big ass blue wave

“B.A.B.W.”

Nov 2, 2026 · X

“B.A.B.W. Ohio, Iowa, Texas, Kansas, Nebraska”

Check it: DDHQ (free)
Readable: Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.

GA-Gov/WI-Gov/MI-Gov/AK-Gov/OH-Gov · ForecastForecast Not yet

GA, WI, AK, OH Gov Tilt D; MI Gov Lean D

“Toss-up➡️Tilt Dem”

Jacob Rubashkin, Deputy editor, Inside Elections (Bluesky bio)

Oct 29, 2026 · Bluesky

“GA: Toss-up➡️Tilt Dem”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.

US-House · ForecastForecast Still in reach

D net gain 12-25 (up to 240 seats)

Erin Covey (Cook Political Report; org account post), Cook Political Report org account; analysis byline Erin Covey

Oct 30, 2026 · Bluesky

“We’re now projecting Democrats will flip 12 to 25 seats, giving them as many as 240 seats in the House.”

Check it: DDHQ (free)
Readable: Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.

US-House · ForecastForecast Still in reach

D net gain 20-30

Jacob Rubashkin, Deputy editor, Inside Elections (Bluesky bio)

Oct 30, 2026 · Bluesky

“Projected range: D+20-30 seats”

Check it: DDHQ (free)
Readable: Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.

US-Senate · ForecastForecast Not yet

P(D Senate) = 0.75, possibly toward 0.80

G. Elliott Morris, Strength In Numbers; polls/forecasts @fiftyplusone.news (Bluesky bio)

Nov 1, 2026 · Bluesky

“I’m feeling pretty good about our forecast at p(Dem Senate) = 0.75. might even go up toward 80%”

Check it: DDHQ (free)
Readable: Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.

US-Senate · ForecastForecast Not yet

Flanagan (MN) and Pappas (NH) win; Angie Nixon (FL) and Adam Hamilton (KS) leads are mirages

“chalkier”

Politix hosts, Matt Yglesias and Brian Beutler (speaker not confirmed), Co-hosts, Politix podcast (Yglesias: Slow Boring; Beutler: Off Message) Unattributed

Oct 28, 2026 · Podcast

Check it: DDHQ (free)
Readable: Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.

US-House · ForecastForecast Still in reach

D seats = 242

Brian Beutler, Co-host, Politix podcast

Oct 28, 2026 · Podcast

Check it: DDHQ (free)
Readable: Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.

US-House · ForecastForecast Still in reach

D seats = 235

Matt Yglesias, Co-host, Politix podcast

Oct 28, 2026 · Podcast

Check it: DDHQ (free)
Readable: Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.

US-House · ForecastForecast Still in reach

D+9 'very likely'; D seats 230-245

“very likely”

Politix hosts, Matt Yglesias and Brian Beutler (speaker not confirmed), Co-hosts, Politix podcast (Yglesias: Slow Boring; Beutler: Off Message) Unattributed

Oct 28, 2026 · Podcast

Check it: DDHQ (free)
Readable: Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.

US-Senate · ForecastForecast Still in reach

D Senate seats = 53

Brian Beutler, Co-host, Politix podcast

Oct 28, 2026 · Podcast

Check it: DDHQ (free)
Readable: Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.

US-Senate · ForecastForecast Still in reach

D Senate seats = 51

“fall a little short”

Matt Yglesias, Co-host, Politix podcast

Oct 28, 2026 · Podcast

Check it: DDHQ (free)
Readable: Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.

state-legislatures · ForecastForecast Not yet

D flips both AZ chambers; regains NV trifecta; breaks through in WI; restores MN and MI trifectas; flips PA Senate (trifecta); takes ≥ 1 NH chamber

Politix hosts, Matt Yglesias and Brian Beutler (speaker not confirmed), Co-hosts, Politix podcast (Yglesias: Slow Boring; Beutler: Off Message) Unattributed

Oct 28, 2026 · Podcast

Readable: Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.

US-House · ForecastForecast Still in reach

D 239-196 (D+24)

Alan Abramowitz, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball; Professor Emeritus, Emory (byline)

Oct 29, 2026 · Substack

“a prediction of a Democratic gain of 24 seats in the House of Representatives, giving Democrats a 239-196 seat majority”

Check it: DDHQ (free)
Readable: Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.

US-Senate · ForecastForecast Still in reach

D 53-47 (D+6)

Alan Abramowitz, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball; Professor Emeritus, Emory (byline)

Oct 29, 2026 · Substack

“a Democratic gain of six seats in the Senate, giving Democrats a 53-47 seat majority in the upper chamber.”

Check it: DDHQ (free)
Readable: Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.

GA-Gov/NV-Gov · ForecastForecast Not yet

GA-Gov and NV-Gov Leans D

Leans Democratic (paraphrase, not a quote)

Kyle Kondik (Crystal Ball final ratings byline), Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball (byline)

Nov 2, 2026 · Substack

“the Crystal Ball’s only two gubernatorial Toss-ups have been Georgia and Nevada, and both go to Leans Democratic.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.

US-House · ForecastForecast Still in reach

D seats > 235

Kyle Kondik (Crystal Ball final ratings byline), Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball (byline)

Nov 2, 2026 · Substack

“Democrats appear likelier than not to finish ahead of the 235 seats they won in 2018.”

Check it: DDHQ (free)
Readable: Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.

governors: WI NV GA OH AK KS VT NH MI TX AZ FL · ForecastForecast Not yet

D: WI, NV, GA, OH, AK, MI, AZ governor; R: KS, VT, NH, TX, FL governor

“WI: likely Dem NV: tilt Dem GA: lean Dem OH: lean Dem”

Lakshya Jain, Polling and political data, The Argument; co-founder, Split Ticket (X bio)

Oct 27, 2026 · X

“WI: likely Dem NV: tilt Dem GA: lean Dem OH: lean Dem AK: likely Dem KS: lean GOP VT: likely GOP NH: likely GOP”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.

US-Senate · ForecastForecast Not yet

P(D control) = 54% (fundamentals-only model; 46% if presidential correlation stays at current levels)

Patrick Ruffini, Pollster, Echelon Insights (X bio: 'Pollster @EchelonInsights'). R evidence: Echelon Insights is the Republican polling firm he co-founded; he was RNC eCampaign director (background, not stated in bio)

Oct 28, 2026 · X

“Democrats are 54% to win the Senate on a simple fundamentals-only model”

Check it: DDHQ (free)
Readable: Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.

US-Senate · ForecastForecast Not scored

Seat #50 = TX-Sen, seat #51 = ME-Sen

Lakshya Jain, Polling and political data, The Argument; co-founder, Split Ticket (X bio)

Oct 29, 2026 · X

“Seat #50 is Texas, and seat #51 is Maine. 5 states are clustered together between 49-52”

Check it: DDHQ (free)
Readable: Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.

natl-electorate · ForecastForecast Not scored

final electorate a touch left of 2018 (2018 voters D+3.3; current estimate D+3.0)

“well within range of a "normal" wave, not a tsunami”

Oct 30, 2026 · X

“I expect that will likely continue and we'll end up a touch left of 2018, well within range of a "normal" wave, not a tsunami.”

Readable: Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.

US-House · ForecastForecast Still in reach

D net gain 12-25 seats (Cook ratings)

“more than enough for a majority”

Dave Wasserman, Senior Editor & Elections Analyst, Cook Political Report

Oct 30, 2026 · X

“we're projecting a Dem gain of 12-25 seats, more than enough for a majority.”

Check it: DDHQ (free)
Readable: Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.

US-Senate · ForecastForecast Still in reach

D seats = 50 at Lean D or better (47 Safe/Likely + 3 Lean)

Scott Rasmussen, President, RMG Research; founder of Rasmussen Reports (X bio: 'Founded a Couple of Well Known Brands ... President, RMG Research'); runs Scott's Scoreboard. No party role stated

Nov 1, 2026 · X

“47 Senate Seats Safe/Likely D. 3 More Lean D.”

Check it: DDHQ (free)
Readable: Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.

US-House · ForecastForecast Still in reach

R net House loss ~25 (D ~240)

Erick Erickson, Conservative radio broadcaster (X bio: 'Christian broadcaster. Conservative truth-teller. Live on-air daily'; category Media Personality). R-leaning commentator, not a party strategist, so class unknown

Nov 1, 2026 · X

“GOP loses the House by 25 seats.”

Check it: DDHQ (free)
Readable: Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.

natl-governors · ForecastForecast Still in reach

D wins a clear majority of governorships (≥ 26 by our reading)

“in good shape to grab a clear majority of governors”

Kyle Kondik, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball, UVA Center for Politics (X bio)

Nov 1, 2026 · X

“Dems already appear to be in good shape to grab a clear majority of governors”

Readable: Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.

US-Senate · ForecastForecast Still in reach

D Senate seats = 53 (P(D Senate) 77%)

Lakshya Jain, Polling and political data, The Argument; co-founder, Split Ticket (X bio)

Nov 2, 2026 · X

“P(Dem Senate) = 77% (53D-47R)”

Check it: DDHQ (free)
Readable: Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.

US-House · ForecastForecast Still in reach

D House seats = 239 (P(D House) 92%)

Lakshya Jain, Polling and political data, The Argument; co-founder, Split Ticket (X bio)

Nov 2, 2026 · X

“P(Dem House) = 92% (239D-196R)”

Check it: DDHQ (free)
Readable: Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.

US-House/US-Senate · ForecastForecast Not yet

outcome = big ass blue wave (middle tier of her ladder)

“BOTH predicting a Big Ass Wave”

Nov 2, 2026 · X

“@LarrySabato and I are BOTH predicting a Big Ass Wave.”

Check it: DDHQ (free)
Readable: Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.

US-House/US-Senate · ForecastForecast Still in reach

D wins both House and Senate (more likely than not, 50+1 forecast)

“more likely than not”

G. Elliott Morris, data-driven journalist, pollster; Substack Strength In Numbers; 50+1 (per X bio)

Nov 2, 2026 · X

“Democrats are more likely than not to win both the House and the Senate tomorrow, according to our forecasts at @50plus1news”

Check it: DDHQ (free)
Readable: Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.

US-Senate · ForecastForecast Still in reach

D Senate seats = 53

at least Leans D (paraphrase, not a quote)

J. Miles Coleman, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball (X bio)

Nov 2, 2026 · X

“SENATE: 53 at least Leans D, 47 at least Leans R (D+6)”

Check it: DDHQ (free)
Readable: Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.

natl-governors · ForecastForecast Still in reach

D governorships = 28

at least Leans D (paraphrase, not a quote)

J. Miles Coleman, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball (X bio)

Nov 2, 2026 · X

“GOVERNORS: 28 at least Leans D, 22 at least Leans R (D+4)”

Readable: Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.

US-House · ForecastForecast Still in reach

D House seats = 239

at least Leans D (paraphrase, not a quote)

J. Miles Coleman, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball (X bio)

Nov 2, 2026 · X

“HOUSE: 239 at least Leans D, 196 at least Leans R (D+24)”

Check it: DDHQ (free)
Readable: Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.

US-House/US-Senate · ForecastForecast Still in reach

D House ~236; Senate 52-48 D

Jason Villalba, Chairman, Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation (TxHPF, polls Texas); attorney; former member of the Texas Legislature (X bio). He served as a Republican state rep (background, not in bio); thread says 'a data analysis, not an endorsement', so classed nonpartisan

Nov 2, 2026 · X

“U.S. House: about 236 D. U.S. Senate: 52-48 D.”

Check it: DDHQ (free)
Readable: Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.

Seat predictions

Point forecasts, scored live: a hit once Democrats’ called seats reach the number, a miss once called plus uncalled seats fall short.

Probabilities score the side they favour; toss-ups hit when the final margin is within 5 points; margins hit within ±3 points of the prediction.

House D seats

Who	Prediction	Date	Result
Alan Abramowitz	D 239-196 (D+24)	Oct 29, 2026	Still in reach
Brian Beutler	D seats = 242	Oct 28, 2026	Still in reach
Dave Wasserman	D net gain 12-25 seats (Cook ratings) “more than enough for a majority”	Oct 30, 2026	Still in reach
Erick Erickson	R net House loss ~25 (D ~240)	Nov 1, 2026	Still in reach
Erin Covey	D net gain 12-25 (up to 240 seats)	Oct 30, 2026	Still in reach
J. Miles Coleman	D House seats = 239	Nov 2, 2026	Still in reach
Jacob Rubashkin	D net gain 20-30	Oct 30, 2026	Still in reach
Kyle Kondik	D seats > 235	Nov 2, 2026	Still in reach
Lakshya Jain	D House seats = 239 (P(D House) 92%)	Nov 2, 2026	Still in reach
Matt Yglesias	D seats = 235	Oct 28, 2026	Still in reach
Politix hosts Unattributed	D+9 'very likely'; D seats 230-245 “very likely”	Oct 28, 2026	Still in reach
Model Split Ticket model (The Argument)	Median 239 D seats; 91.7% chance of D House control	Oct 31, 2026
Model VoteHub forecast	89.2% chance of D House control	Nov 2, 2026

Senate D seats

Who	Prediction	Date	Result
Alan Abramowitz	D 53-47 (D+6)	Oct 29, 2026	Still in reach
Brian Beutler	D Senate seats = 53	Oct 28, 2026	Still in reach
G. Elliott Morris	P(D Senate) = 0.75, possibly toward 0.80	Nov 1, 2026	Not yet
J. Miles Coleman	D Senate seats = 53	Nov 2, 2026	Still in reach
Lakshya Jain	Seat #50 = TX-Sen, seat #51 = ME-Sen	Oct 29, 2026	Not scoredA tipping-point order, not a call.
Lakshya Jain	D Senate seats = 53 (P(D Senate) 77%)	Nov 2, 2026	Still in reach
Matt Yglesias	D Senate seats = 51 “fall a little short”	Oct 28, 2026	Still in reach
Patrick Ruffini	P(D control) = 54% (fundamentals-only model; 46% if presidential correlation stays at current levels)	Oct 28, 2026	Not yet
Politix hosts Unattributed	Flanagan (MN) and Pappas (NH) win; Angie Nixon (FL) and Adam Hamilton (KS) leads are mirages “chalkier”	Oct 28, 2026	Not yet
Scott Rasmussen	D seats = 50 at Lean D or better (47 Safe/Likely + 3 Lean)	Nov 1, 2026	Still in reach
Model Split Ticket model (The Argument)	Median 53 D seats; 72.4% chance of D Senate control	Nov 2, 2026
Model VoteHub forecast	67.9% chance of D Senate control	Nov 2, 2026
Model Silver Bulletin FLIPR (free preview)	Senate odds roughly 3-to-1 for Democrats	Nov 1, 2026

Both chambers

Who	Prediction	Date	Result
G. Elliott Morris	D wins both House and Senate (more likely than not, 50+1 forecast) “more likely than not”	Nov 2, 2026	Still in reach
Jason Villalba	D House ~236; Senate 52-48 D	Nov 2, 2026	Still in reach
Rachel Bitecofer	outcome = big ass blue wave (middle tier of her ladder) “BOTH predicting a Big Ass Wave”	Nov 2, 2026	Not yetScored on her Senate list for this tier: AK, NC, ME, OH, IA, TX, KS and NE.

Race, governor and chamber predictions, scored the same way from the calls

Governors

Who	Prediction	Date	Result
Brian Beutler	D wins “on track to win the governor’s race”	Oct 30, 2026	Not yet
J. Miles Coleman	D governorships = 28	Nov 2, 2026	Still in reach
Jacob Rubashkin	GA, WI, AK, OH Gov Tilt D; MI Gov Lean D “Toss-up➡️Tilt Dem”	Oct 29, 2026	Not yet
Jason Villalba	TX-Sen D +3; TX-Gov R +2.5; Lt Gov and AG R +3.5; Comptroller R +5	Nov 2, 2026	Not yetScored on the TX-Sen, TX-Gov and TX-AG winners. The other offices are not entered on this site.
Jon Ralston	Ford 46, Lombardo 45 (Ford wins after day-after mail)	Nov 1, 2026	Not yet
Kyle Kondik	GA-Gov and NV-Gov Leans D	Nov 2, 2026	Not yet
Kyle Kondik	Hobbs (D) wins (Crystal Ball: Likely D) “it should be a shock if Katie Hobbs lost”	Oct 27, 2026	Not yet
Kyle Kondik	D wins a clear majority of governorships (≥ 26 by our reading) “in good shape to grab a clear majority of governors”	Nov 1, 2026	Still in reach
Lakshya Jain	D: WI, NV, GA, OH, AK, MI, AZ governor; R: KS, VT, NH, TX, FL governor “WI: likely Dem NV: tilt Dem GA: lean Dem OH: lean Dem”	Oct 27, 2026	Not yet
State Navigate	Bottoms 50.3%, 54%	Nov 2, 2026	Not yet
State Navigate	Benson 54.3%, 94%	Nov 2, 2026	Not yet
State Navigate	Shapiro 61.1%, >99%	Nov 2, 2026	Not yet

Trifectas and chamber flips

Who	Prediction	Date	Result
Jason Villalba	TX House R 79 - D 71; TX Senate 19-12 (R-D)	Nov 2, 2026	Not yetScored on control of each chamber; seat counts aren't entered for Texas.
Jon Ralston	D supermajority, 28-32 seats (of 42) “Democratic supermajority”	Nov 1, 2026	Not yetScored on control; the supermajority (28 or more seats) isn't entered for Nevada.
Jon Ralston	D 13-8	Nov 1, 2026	Not yetScored on control; seat counts aren't entered for Nevada.
Matt Yglesias	Hobbs wins; D probably flips legislature (AZ trifecta)	Oct 29, 2026	Not yet
Politix hosts Unattributed	D flips one NC legislative chamber	Oct 28, 2026	Not yet
Politix hosts Unattributed	D flips both AZ chambers; regains NV trifecta; breaks through in WI; restores MN and MI trifectas; flips PA Senate (trifecta); takes ≥ 1 NH chamber	Oct 28, 2026	Not yetScored on Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire (Nevada, Minnesota and New Hampshire on chamber control). Wisconsin's breakthrough is not scored.
State Navigate	Hobbs 93%; D favored in 34 of 60 House (+7) and 17 of 30 Senate (+4)	Nov 2, 2026	Not yet
State Navigate	D favored in 87 of 180 (+6); R 93	Nov 2, 2026	Not yet
State Navigate	D favored in 24 of 56 (+1); R 32	Nov 2, 2026	Not yet
State Navigate	D favored in 33 of 100 (+3); R 67	Nov 2, 2026	Not yet
State Navigate	D favored in 13 of 50 (+3); R 37	Nov 2, 2026	Not yet
State Navigate	D favored in 62 of 110 (+10)	Nov 2, 2026	Not yet
State Navigate	D favored in 23 of 38 (+3)	Nov 2, 2026	Not yet
State Navigate	Klobuchar 99%; D favored in 80 of 134 House (+13) and 42 of 67 Senate (+8)	Nov 2, 2026	Not yetScored on MN-Gov and control of each chamber; seat counts aren't entered for Minnesota.
State Navigate	NC House D narrow favorites (59-61 favored seats); NC Senate R solid favorites (23-27)	Nov 2, 2026	Not yet
State Navigate	Ayotte (R) 96%; D favored in 252 of 400 House (+73); Senate 12-12	Nov 2, 2026	Not yetScored on NH-Gov and House control. The Senate's 12-12 favours neither side; seat counts aren't entered for New Hampshire.
State Navigate	Lombardo (R) 74%; D favored in 28 of 42 Assembly and 13 of 21 Senate	Nov 2, 2026	Not yetScored on NV-Gov and control of each chamber; seat counts aren't entered for Nevada.
State Navigate	D favored in 112 of 203 (+9)	Nov 2, 2026	Not yet
State Navigate	D favored in 26 of 50 (+3)	Nov 2, 2026	Not yet
State Navigate	Crowley 75%; D favored in 52 of 99 Assembly (+7) and 18 of 33 Senate (+3)	Nov 2, 2026	Not yet

Named surprises

Who	Prediction	Date	Result
Politix hosts Unattributed	Annie Andrews (D) wins	Oct 28, 2026	Not yet
Politix hosts Unattributed	Jonathan Nez (D) wins	Oct 28, 2026	Not yet
Politix hosts Unattributed	Collins (R) beats Troy Jackson (D)	Oct 28, 2026	Not yet
Politix hosts Unattributed	Scott Colom (D) has a real chance vs Cindy Hyde-Smith “a fighter's chance”	Oct 28, 2026	Not scoredA fighter's chance, not a call.
Politix hosts Unattributed	Adam Hamilton (D) beats Roger Marshall (R)	Oct 28, 2026	Not yet
Politix hosts Unattributed	Sam Forstag (D) wins	Oct 28, 2026	Not yet
Politix hosts Unattributed	Bob Brooks (D) wins	Oct 28, 2026	Not yet
Politix hosts Unattributed	Nancy Lacore (D) wins	Oct 28, 2026	Not yet

Race calls, margins and ratings

Who	Prediction	Date	Result
G. Elliott Morris	Nixon (D) loses FL-Sen “very likely losing”	Oct 27, 2026	Not yet
Jacob Rubashkin	TX-Sen and OH-Sen Tilt D “Toss-up ➡️ Tilt Dem”	Oct 29, 2026	Not yet
Jason Villalba	toss-up (Rosenthal D vs French R) “Railroad Commission, toss-up.”	Nov 2, 2026	Not yet
Jason Villalba	R wins TX-09, TX-23, TX-32; D wins TX-15, TX-28, TX-34, TX-35	Nov 2, 2026	Not yet
Jon Ralston	D holds: Titus 50-41, Lee 49-44, Horsford 52-42	Nov 1, 2026	Not yet
Jon Ralston	Flippo 46, Benitez-Thompson 44, Chapman 10	Nov 1, 2026	Not yet
Jon Ralston	D sweep: Jauregui 48-43, Cannizzaro 50-44, Aguilar 52-39, Mathis-Coleman 48-44, MacDougall 48-46	Nov 1, 2026	Not yetScored on AG and SoS. The LG, Treasurer and Controller races are not entered on this site.
Kyle Kondik	R holds the SC, LA and MS Senate seats “I doubt Rs actually lose any of these Senate seats”	Oct 29, 2026	Not yet
Lakshya Jain	Peltola underperforms Split Ticket model margin	Nov 2, 2026	Not yet
Lakshya Jain	Dandiya (D) wins FL-22 “I'd probably take a heavy "over" on Democrats in FL-22”	Oct 29, 2026	Not yet
Lakshya Jain	Crane (R) holds AZ-02 “the under on AZ-02 (Crane wins)”	Oct 29, 2026	Not yet
Lakshya Jain	Valadao (R) loses by ~9 (D margin ~ +9) “i personally expect him to lose by ~9”	Oct 30, 2026	Not yet
Lakshya Jain	Talarico (D) wins (model: Likely D) “Talarico at Likely D”	Nov 1, 2026	Not yet
Louis Jacobson	AZ-AG Leans D (Mayes); AZ-SoS Likely D (Fontes)	Oct 29, 2026	Not yet
Louis Jacobson	GA-AG and GA-SoS Toss-up	Oct 29, 2026	Not yet
Louis Jacobson	Leans D (Bayh)	Oct 29, 2026	Not yet
Louis Jacobson	MI-SoS Leans D; MI-AG Toss-up	Oct 29, 2026	Not yetScored on MI-SoS; MI-AG was rated a toss-up.
Louis Jacobson	MN-AG Toss-up (Ellison); MN-SoS Leans D (Simon)	Oct 29, 2026	Not yet
Louis Jacobson	NV-AG Leans D (open); NV-SoS Likely D (Aguilar)	Oct 29, 2026	Not yet
Louis Jacobson	WI-AG Leans D (Kaul); WI-SoS Leans D (open)	Oct 29, 2026	Not yet
Matt Yglesias	D wins	Oct 31, 2026	Not yet
Matt Yglesias	Dembo (D) loses KY-06	Nov 3, 2026	Not yet
Michael McDonald	TX total votes ~11.4M; VEP turnout ~53.6%	Nov 2, 2026	Not scoredNo turnout data.
Patrick Ruffini	final electorate a touch left of 2018 (2018 voters D+3.3; current estimate D+3.0) “well within range of a "normal" wave, not a tsunami”	Oct 30, 2026	Not scoredAbout the electorate's make-up, not a call.
Patrick Ruffini	D margin ~ +3 to +4 (Peltola)	Oct 31, 2026	Not yet
Politix hosts Unattributed	Matt Dunlap (D) wins	Oct 28, 2026	Not yet
Politix hosts Unattributed	Paige Cognetti (D) wins “will probably win”	Oct 28, 2026	Not yet
Politix hosts Unattributed	D wins TX-15 (Bobby Pulido) and TX-35 (Johnny Garcia)	Oct 28, 2026	Not yet

National vote (model reference)

Who	Prediction	Date	Result
Model Silver Bulletin generic-ballot average	D 52.8, R 43.4 (D+9.4)	Nov 2, 2026
Model VoteHub generic-ballot average	D 52, R 43 (D+9)	Nov 2, 2026

Timeline

Every hour from 6:00 pm to 1:00 am ET: who closes, the headline bars, and the rest under “More markers”.

6:00 pm ET

Polls close IN, KY

Key races KY-Sen IN-05 KY-06 IN-HouseChamber IN-SenateChamber IN-SoS

IN-05 · BarGreat night

D (J.D. Ford) wins

“it's going to be a really, really, really good night”

Jeff Singer, Managing editor, The Downballot (episode description)

Oct 29, 2026 · Podcast

“Indiana's 5th of what they would say,oh boy, it's going to be a really, really, really good night.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 6:00 pm ET. IN-05 is in Eastern time. Medium: most ballots counted by noon Wednesday in 2022 and 2024 (NYT). Most of state closes 18 ET, Central-time NW/SW counties 19 ET.

KY-06 · BarGreat night

D loses narrowly (close) → very good night still possible

“Democrats still have a very good night”

David Nir, Publisher, The Downballot (podcast intro)

Oct 29, 2026 · Podcast

“keep your mind open for the possibility that Democrats still have a very good night.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 6:00 pm ET. KY-06 (Lexington area) is in Eastern time. Fast: nearly all votes counted by midnight in 2024 (NYT). Eastern-time counties close 18 ET, Central 19 ET.

IN-05 · BarGreat night

D margin close to even or D ahead

“a sign of low Republican turnout and a bigger Democratic wave”

Domenico Montanaro, NPR (byline; title not shown on page)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“If these are close or tipping to Democrats, it could be a sign of low Republican turnout and a bigger Democratic wave.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 6:00 pm ET. IN-05 is in Eastern time. Medium: most ballots counted by noon Wednesday in 2022 and 2024 (NYT). Most of state closes 18 ET, Central-time NW/SW counties 19 ET.
2024 baseline: A swing of about 16.8 points toward D from 2024 (IN-05 was -16.8 for Harris, 2024 presidential).

More markers (11)

KY-06 · BarGreat night

D (Dembo) wins

“very, very good night for Democrats”

Jeff Singer, Managing editor, The Downballot (episode description)

Oct 29, 2026 · Podcast

“but if Republicans are losing it,it's going to be a very, very good night for Democrats.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 6:00 pm ET. KY-06 (Lexington area) is in Eastern time. Fast: nearly all votes counted by midnight in 2024 (NYT). Eastern-time counties close 18 ET, Central 19 ET.

KY-06 · BarGood night

D takes KY-06

“Republicans will be downing their bourbon”

Hans Nichols, Axios (byline)

Oct 31, 2026 · Web

“If Democrats take the open Lexington-based seat (Trump +15), Republicans will be downing their bourbon.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 6:00 pm ET. KY-06 (Lexington area) is in Eastern time. Fast: nearly all votes counted by midnight in 2024 (NYT). Eastern-time counties close 18 ET, Central 19 ET.

KY-06 · BarGreat night

D margin close to even or D ahead

“a sign of low Republican turnout and a bigger Democratic wave”

Domenico Montanaro, NPR (byline; title not shown on page)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“If these are close or tipping to Democrats, it could be a sign of low Republican turnout and a bigger Democratic wave.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 6:00 pm ET. KY-06 (Lexington area) is in Eastern time. Fast: nearly all votes counted by midnight in 2024 (NYT). Eastern-time counties close 18 ET, Central 19 ET.
2024 baseline: A swing of about 15.0 points toward D from 2024 (KY-06 was -15.0 for Harris, 2024 presidential).

KY-06 · BarGood night

Dembo (D) competitive in early returns

“the party should be in for a good night”

Max Kendix, The Times (London), byline 'Max Kendix, Washington'

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“If the Democratic candidate, Zach Dembo, looks competitive early in the evening here, the party should be in for a good night.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 6:00 pm ET. KY-06 (Lexington area) is in Eastern time. Fast: nearly all votes counted by midnight in 2024 (NYT). Eastern-time counties close 18 ET, Central 19 ET.

KY-06/IN-05 · BarGreat night

D wins KY-6 (Dembo) or IN-5 (Ford)

“on track for a very good night”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“either would put the party on track for a very good night.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 6:00 pm ET.

KY-06 · BarGood night

D margin ≥ -3 (R+3 or closer = on track; closer = bigger night)

on track (paraphrase, not a quote)

Politix hosts, Matt Yglesias and Brian Beutler (speaker not confirmed), Co-hosts, Politix podcast (Yglesias: Slow Boring; Beutler: Off Message) Unattributed

Oct 28, 2026 · Podcast

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 6:00 pm ET. KY-06 (Lexington area) is in Eastern time. Fast: nearly all votes counted by midnight in 2024 (NYT). Eastern-time counties close 18 ET, Central 19 ET.
2024 baseline: A swing of 12.0 points toward D from 2024 (KY-06 was -15.0 for Harris, 2024 presidential).

IN-HouseChamber · BarGreat night

D flips ≥ 4 → breaks R supermajority (70-30 now)

break supermajority (paraphrase, not a quote)

Tom Davies, Indiana Capital Chronicle (byline)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“Democrats need to flip four seats from the current 70-30 Republican House margin to break that status”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 6:00 pm ET. Medium: most ballots counted by noon Wednesday in 2022 and 2024 (NYT). Most of state closes 18 ET, Central-time NW/SW counties 19 ET.

KY-06 · ForecastForecast Not yet

Dembo (D) loses KY-06

Matthew Yglesias, Slow Boring (byline); Politix co-host

Nov 3, 2026 · Substack

“Dembo will probably lose, and there’s no real significance in that.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 6:00 pm ET. KY-06 (Lexington area) is in Eastern time. Fast: nearly all votes counted by midnight in 2024 (NYT). Eastern-time counties close 18 ET, Central 19 ET.

IN-HouseChamber · ForecastForecast Not yet

D favored in 33 of 100 (+3); R 67

State Navigate (model; executive director Chaz Nuttycombe), State Navigate, nonpartisan 501(c)(3) state-legislature forecaster (site)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“Democrats are favored to win 33 seats.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 6:00 pm ET. Medium: most ballots counted by noon Wednesday in 2022 and 2024 (NYT). Most of state closes 18 ET, Central-time NW/SW counties 19 ET.

IN-SenateChamber · ForecastForecast Not yet

D favored in 13 of 50 (+3); R 37

State Navigate (model; executive director Chaz Nuttycombe), State Navigate, nonpartisan 501(c)(3) state-legislature forecaster (site)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“Democrats are favored to win 13 seats.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 6:00 pm ET. Medium: most ballots counted by noon Wednesday in 2022 and 2024 (NYT). Most of state closes 18 ET, Central-time NW/SW counties 19 ET.

IN-SoS · ForecastForecast Not yet

Leans D (Bayh)

Leans Democratic (paraphrase, not a quote)

Louis Jacobson, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball (byline)

Oct 29, 2026 · Substack

“Polls show Bayh with a small but consistent lead over Engling while Ballard and Shillings lag behind in the single digits”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 6:00 pm ET. Medium: most ballots counted by noon Wednesday in 2022 and 2024 (NYT). Most of state closes 18 ET, Central-time NW/SW counties 19 ET.

7:00 pm ET

Polls close FL, GA, NH, SC, VA, VT · also AL (Eastern), IN (Central), KY (Central)

Key races GA-Sen SC-Sen VA-Sen GA-Gov VT-Gov FL-14 FL-22 FL-25 FL-27 SC-01 VA-01 VA-02 VA-05 GA-AG GA-HouseChamber GA-PSC-3 GA-PSC-5 GA-SenateChamber GA-SoS

SC-Sen · BarGreat night

Andrews beats Graham → R Senate majority gone; close → R sweating

“Senate Republicans can say goodbye to their majority”

Hans Nichols, Axios (byline)

Oct 31, 2026 · Web

“If Sen. Darline Graham loses to Annie Andrews in the Trump +18 state, Senate Republicans can say goodbye to their majority.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 7:00 pm ET. Fast: most votes counted by midnight; an extremely close race could take over a week (The Times).

SC-Sen · BarGood night

Black turnout at presidential (2024) level → Andrews has a shot

“Democrats could have a shot”

Domenico Montanaro, NPR (byline)

Oct 30, 2026 · Web

“watch Black turnout here. If it's presidential-level high, Democrats could have a shot.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 7:00 pm ET. Fast: most votes counted by midnight; an extremely close race could take over a week (The Times).

VA-05 · BarGreat night

D (Perriello) flips VA-05

“a very, very big wave”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Good night VA-01: D (Shannon Taylor) flips VA-01 “it would really be good”
Great night VA-05: D (Perriello) flips VA-05 “a very, very big wave”

Jeff Singer, Managing editor, The Downballot (episode description)

Oct 29, 2026 · Podcast

“So if we're talking about,I don't want to say tsunami,but let's say a very, very big wave, this one could fall.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 7:00 pm ET. Fast: 95% on election night or early next morning; close races often called next day (AP called VA-02 at 5:28 pm ET the day after in 2024, per Axios).

More markers (29)

SC-Sen · BarGreat night

Andrews (D) beats Graham

“would mark a historic night for Democrats”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“in the South Carolina Senate race (where polls close at 7 p.m.), would mark a historic night for Democrats”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 7:00 pm ET. Fast: most votes counted by midnight; an extremely close race could take over a week (The Times).

GA-Gov · BarGreat night

Bottoms beats Jackson

“would show the party exceeding them”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Good night GA-Sen: Ossoff solid reelection “would show the Democrats meeting expectations”
Great night GA-Gov: Bottoms beats Jackson “would show the party exceeding them”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“despite the massive sums he has poured into his own campaign, would show the party exceeding them.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 7:00 pm ET. Fast: counties must report within an hour of close; early votes report first but Atlanta-area counties are slow, so an early R lead tends to narrow (VoteHub). Runoff Dec 1 if no one tops 50% (GA SOS calendar).
Caution: Early votes report first here and lean R; expect D gains later.

VA-01 · BarGood night

D (Shannon Taylor) flips VA-01

“it would really be good”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Good night VA-01: D (Shannon Taylor) flips VA-01 “it would really be good”
Great night VA-05: D (Perriello) flips VA-05 “a very, very big wave”

Jeff Singer, Managing editor, The Downballot (episode description)

Oct 29, 2026 · Podcast

“Democrats don't have to win it to take the House, but it would really be good.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 7:00 pm ET. Fast: 95% on election night or early next morning; close races often called next day (AP called VA-02 at 5:28 pm ET the day after in 2024, per Axios).

VA-01 · BarGreat night

D flips VA-01

“they're in for a very good night”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Good night VA-02: Kiggans (R) loses → low-single-digit Trump-seat Rs in trouble; Kiggans holds → good sign for Collins, Hinson “should brace for impact”
Great night VA-01: D flips VA-01 “they're in for a very good night”
Great night VA-05: D flips VA-05 “they're in for a great night”

Hans Nichols, Axios (byline)

Oct 31, 2026 · Web

“If Democrats flip VA-01, a Trump +5 seat, they're in for a very good night.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 7:00 pm ET. Fast: 95% on election night or early next morning; close races often called next day (AP called VA-02 at 5:28 pm ET the day after in 2024, per Axios).

VA-01 · BarGreat night

D (Shannon Taylor) wins

“augur a larger wave”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Good night VA-02: D (Luria) wins “on track for a solid performance”
Great night VA-01: D (Shannon Taylor) wins “augur a larger wave”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“If Democrats also win the VA-1 congressional seat, that will augur a larger wave.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 7:00 pm ET. Fast: 95% on election night or early next morning; close races often called next day (AP called VA-02 at 5:28 pm ET the day after in 2024, per Axios).

VA-01 · BarGood night

D wins

“an early sign that Democrats may be in for a good performance”

Colton Game, Digital Content Producer, WSLS 10 (byline)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“If it flips, it is an early sign that Democrats may be in for a good performance on election night.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 7:00 pm ET. Fast: 95% on election night or early next morning; close races often called next day (AP called VA-02 at 5:28 pm ET the day after in 2024, per Axios).

VA-02 · BarGood night

D (Luria) flips VA-02

“the Democrats good night to kick off”

David Beard, Contributor, The Downballot (podcast intro)

Oct 29, 2026 · Podcast

“you would expect the Democrats good night to kick off with picking upa district like this.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 7:00 pm ET. Fast: 95% on election night or early next morning; close races often called next day (AP called VA-02 at 5:28 pm ET the day after in 2024, per Axios).

VA-02 · BarGood night

Kiggans (R) loses → low-single-digit Trump-seat Rs in trouble; Kiggans holds → good sign for Collins, Hinson

“should brace for impact”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Good night VA-02: Kiggans (R) loses → low-single-digit Trump-seat Rs in trouble; Kiggans holds → good sign for Collins, Hinson “should brace for impact”
Great night VA-01: D flips VA-01 “they're in for a very good night”
Great night VA-05: D flips VA-05 “they're in for a great night”

Hans Nichols, Axios (byline)

Oct 31, 2026 · Web

“If even she gets swept away in a 50-50 district, other Republicans in a low-single-digit Trump seat should brace for impact.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 7:00 pm ET. Fast: 95% on election night or early next morning; close races often called next day (AP called VA-02 at 5:28 pm ET the day after in 2024, per Axios).

VA-02 · BarGood night

D (Luria) wins

“on track for a solid performance”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Good night VA-02: D (Luria) wins “on track for a solid performance”
Great night VA-01: D (Shannon Taylor) wins “augur a larger wave”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“a Democratic win in the VA-2 House race will be a sign the party is on track for a solid performance.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 7:00 pm ET. Fast: 95% on election night or early next morning; close races often called next day (AP called VA-02 at 5:28 pm ET the day after in 2024, per Axios).

VA-02 · BarFair / floor

D wins VA-02 (floor)

“the party will be very worried about the rest of the night”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Fair / floor VA-02: D wins VA-02 (floor) “the party will be very worried about the rest of the night”
Great night VA-05: D wins VA-05 “a blue tsunami is on the horizon”

Max Kendix, The Times (London), byline 'Max Kendix, Washington'

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“if they fail to win the 2nd, the party will be very worried about the rest of the night.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 7:00 pm ET. Fast: 95% on election night or early next morning; close races often called next day (AP called VA-02 at 5:28 pm ET the day after in 2024, per Axios).

VA-05 · BarGreat night

D flips VA-05

“they're in for a great night”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Good night VA-02: Kiggans (R) loses → low-single-digit Trump-seat Rs in trouble; Kiggans holds → good sign for Collins, Hinson “should brace for impact”
Great night VA-01: D flips VA-01 “they're in for a very good night”
Great night VA-05: D flips VA-05 “they're in for a great night”

Hans Nichols, Axios (byline)

Oct 31, 2026 · Web

“If they flip VA-05, a Trump +12 seat, they're in for a great night.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 7:00 pm ET. Fast: 95% on election night or early next morning; close races often called next day (AP called VA-02 at 5:28 pm ET the day after in 2024, per Axios).

VA-05 · BarGreat night

D wins VA-05

“a blue tsunami is on the horizon”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Fair / floor VA-02: D wins VA-02 (floor) “the party will be very worried about the rest of the night”
Great night VA-05: D wins VA-05 “a blue tsunami is on the horizon”

Max Kendix, The Times (London), byline 'Max Kendix, Washington'

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“Win the 5th, into which the Democrats have been pouring money as a longshot hope, and a blue tsunami is on the horizon.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 7:00 pm ET. Fast: 95% on election night or early next morning; close races often called next day (AP called VA-02 at 5:28 pm ET the day after in 2024, per Axios).

GA-HouseChamber · BarGood night

D net gain ≥ 10 flips chamber

flip (paraphrase, not a quote)

Greg Bluestein, AJC politics reporter (Bluesky bio)

Oct 28, 2026 · Bluesky

“Georgia Democrats need to net 10 seats to flip the state House.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 7:00 pm ET. Fast: counties must report within an hour of close; early votes report first but Atlanta-area counties are slow, so an early R lead tends to narrow (VoteHub). Runoff Dec 1 if no one tops 50% (GA SOS calendar).
Caution: Early votes report first here and lean R; expect D gains later.

FL-13/FL-07 · BarGreat night

D wins FL-13 or FL-7

“a very good night for Florida Democrats”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Good night FL-25: Moskowitz (D) wins “a positive trend for Democrats”
Great night FL-13/FL-07: D wins FL-13 or FL-7 “a very good night for Florida Democrats”
Great night FL-14/FL-09: Castor (D) holds FL-14; Soto (D) holds FL-9 “an even stronger current”
Great night FL-27: D ousts Salazar “The storm will reach historic proportions”
Great night FL-Gov: Jolly (D) beats Donalds “a very good night for Florida Democrats”
Great night FL-Sen: Nixon (D) beats Moody “the gale will reach Category 5 levels”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“or FL-7, a Republican open seat, would also mark a very good night for Florida Democrats.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 7:00 pm ET.
Caution: Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans R.

FL-14/FL-09 · BarGreat night

Castor (D) holds FL-14; Soto (D) holds FL-9

“an even stronger current”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Good night FL-25: Moskowitz (D) wins “a positive trend for Democrats”
Great night FL-13/FL-07: D wins FL-13 or FL-7 “a very good night for Florida Democrats”
Great night FL-14/FL-09: Castor (D) holds FL-14; Soto (D) holds FL-9 “an even stronger current”
Great night FL-27: D ousts Salazar “The storm will reach historic proportions”
Great night FL-Gov: Jolly (D) beats Donalds “a very good night for Florida Democrats”
Great night FL-Sen: Nixon (D) beats Moody “the gale will reach Category 5 levels”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“reelection for Rep. Kathy Castor in FL-14 would measure an even stronger current, as would a win for Rep. Darren Soto in FL-9”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 7:00 pm ET. Tampa area, Eastern time; county results from ~19 ET (NPR: most FL House results in the 19 ET hour). Very fast: ~99% by midnight in recent generals. Most of FL closes 19 ET but statewide results post from 20 ET (DOS) and AP will not call statewide races before 20 ET.
Caution: Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans R.

FL-25 · BarWarning sign

Moskowitz race close or uncalled early → R House hopes alive

“House Republicans can keep hope alive”

Hans Nichols, Axios (byline)

Oct 31, 2026 · Web

“If Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz's race is close — or too close to call early in the night — House Republicans can keep hope alive.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 7:00 pm ET. Eastern time. Very fast: ~99% by midnight in recent generals. Most of FL closes 19 ET but statewide results post from 20 ET (DOS) and AP will not call statewide races before 20 ET.
Caution: Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans R.

FL-25 · BarGood night

Moskowitz (D) wins

“a positive trend for Democrats”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Good night FL-25: Moskowitz (D) wins “a positive trend for Democrats”
Great night FL-13/FL-07: D wins FL-13 or FL-7 “a very good night for Florida Democrats”
Great night FL-14/FL-09: Castor (D) holds FL-14; Soto (D) holds FL-9 “an even stronger current”
Great night FL-27: D ousts Salazar “The storm will reach historic proportions”
Great night FL-Gov: Jolly (D) beats Donalds “a very good night for Florida Democrats”
Great night FL-Sen: Nixon (D) beats Moody “the gale will reach Category 5 levels”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“A win for Rep. Jared Moskowitz in FL-25 would show a positive trend for Democrats”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 7:00 pm ET. Eastern time. Very fast: ~99% by midnight in recent generals. Most of FL closes 19 ET but statewide results post from 20 ET (DOS) and AP will not call statewide races before 20 ET.
Caution: Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans R.

FL-27 · BarGreat night

D ousts Salazar

“The storm will reach historic proportions”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Good night FL-25: Moskowitz (D) wins “a positive trend for Democrats”
Great night FL-13/FL-07: D wins FL-13 or FL-7 “a very good night for Florida Democrats”
Great night FL-14/FL-09: Castor (D) holds FL-14; Soto (D) holds FL-9 “an even stronger current”
Great night FL-27: D ousts Salazar “The storm will reach historic proportions”
Great night FL-Gov: Jolly (D) beats Donalds “a very good night for Florida Democrats”
Great night FL-Sen: Nixon (D) beats Moody “the gale will reach Category 5 levels”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“The storm will reach historic proportions if Democrats oust veteran GOP Rep. María Elvira Salazar in heavily Hispanic FL-27”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 7:00 pm ET. Miami-Dade, Eastern time. Very fast: ~99% by midnight in recent generals. Most of FL closes 19 ET but statewide results post from 20 ET (DOS) and AP will not call statewide races before 20 ET.
Caution: Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans R.

GA-PSC · BarGood night

D flips GA Public Service Commission

“other major things Dems could flip in a good night”

Daniel Nichanian, Editor in chief, Bolts (Bluesky bio)

Oct 29, 2026 · Bluesky

“It's not just Congress—other major things Dems could flip in a good night: —Georgia's utility commission”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 7:00 pm ET.
Caution: Early votes report first here and lean R; expect D gains later.

GA-Sen · BarGood night

Ossoff solid reelection

“would show the Democrats meeting expectations”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Good night GA-Sen: Ossoff solid reelection “would show the Democrats meeting expectations”
Great night GA-Gov: Bottoms beats Jackson “would show the party exceeding them”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“who has led Republican Mike Collins in polls for the Georgia Senate race all fall, would show the Democrats meeting expectations.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 7:00 pm ET. Fast: counties must report within an hour of close; early votes report first but Atlanta-area counties are slow, so an early R lead tends to narrow (VoteHub). Runoff Dec 1 if no one tops 50% (GA SOS calendar).
Caution: Early votes report first here and lean R; expect D gains later.

GA-PSC · BarGood night

D wins PSC seat(s) on ballot → flips commission

flip (paraphrase, not a quote)

Daniel Nichanian, Editor in chief, Bolts (Bluesky bio)

Oct 31, 2026 · Bluesky

“They need to win again this year to flip the commission (it need not be by 25 points, one vote would suffice).”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 7:00 pm ET.
Caution: Early votes report first here and lean R; expect D gains later.

county:Miami-Dade FL · BarGood night

Miami-Dade Latino House seats swing toward D in line with national polls

the polls were right (paraphrase, not a quote)

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Good night county:Miami-Dade FL: Miami-Dade Latino House seats swing toward D in line with national polls the polls were right
Good night FL-statewide: FL D swing vs 2024 ~ 7 pts → national ~ D+9 (add a couple of points) hunch

Politix hosts, Matt Yglesias and Brian Beutler (speaker not confirmed), Co-hosts, Politix podcast (Yglesias: Slow Boring; Beutler: Off Message) Unattributed

Oct 28, 2026 · Podcast

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 7:00 pm ET.
Caution: Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans R.

SC-Sen · ForecastForecast Not yet

Annie Andrews (D) wins

long-shot surprise (paraphrase, not a quote)

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Forecast SC-Sen: Annie Andrews (D) wins long-shot surprise
Forecast SC-01: Nancy Lacore (D) wins Southern long shot

Politix hosts, Matt Yglesias and Brian Beutler (speaker not confirmed), Co-hosts, Politix podcast (Yglesias: Slow Boring; Beutler: Off Message) Unattributed

Oct 28, 2026 · Podcast

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 7:00 pm ET. Fast: most votes counted by midnight; an extremely close race could take over a week (The Times).

GA-Gov · ForecastForecast Not yet

Bottoms 50.3%, 54%

State Navigate (model; executive director Chaz Nuttycombe), State Navigate, nonpartisan 501(c)(3) state-legislature forecaster (site)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“Keisha Lance Bottoms is projected to get 50.3% of the vote and has a 54% chance of winning.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 7:00 pm ET. Fast: counties must report within an hour of close; early votes report first but Atlanta-area counties are slow, so an early R lead tends to narrow (VoteHub). Runoff Dec 1 if no one tops 50% (GA SOS calendar).
Caution: Early votes report first here and lean R; expect D gains later.

GA-HouseChamber · ForecastForecast Not yet

D favored in 87 of 180 (+6); R 93

State Navigate (model; executive director Chaz Nuttycombe), State Navigate, nonpartisan 501(c)(3) state-legislature forecaster (site)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“Georgia Republicans are moderate favorites to win a majority in the State House.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 7:00 pm ET. Fast: counties must report within an hour of close; early votes report first but Atlanta-area counties are slow, so an early R lead tends to narrow (VoteHub). Runoff Dec 1 if no one tops 50% (GA SOS calendar).
Caution: Early votes report first here and lean R; expect D gains later.

FL-22 · ForecastForecast Not yet

Dandiya (D) wins FL-22

“I'd probably take a heavy "over" on Democrats in FL-22”

Lakshya Jain, Polling and political data, The Argument; co-founder, Split Ticket (X bio)

Oct 29, 2026 · X

“I'd probably take a heavy "over" on Democrats in FL-22 (Dandiya wins)”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 7:00 pm ET. Eastern time. Very fast: ~99% by midnight in recent generals. Most of FL closes 19 ET but statewide results post from 20 ET (DOS) and AP will not call statewide races before 20 ET.
Caution: Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans R.

GA-AG/GA-SoS · ForecastForecast Not yet

GA-AG and GA-SoS Toss-up

Toss-up (paraphrase, not a quote)

Louis Jacobson, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball (byline)

Oct 29, 2026 · Substack

“Georgia: From Leans Republican to Toss-up.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 7:00 pm ET.
Caution: Early votes report first here and lean R; expect D gains later.

GA-SenateChamber · ForecastForecast Not yet

D favored in 24 of 56 (+1); R 32

State Navigate (model; executive director Chaz Nuttycombe), State Navigate, nonpartisan 501(c)(3) state-legislature forecaster (site)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“Georgia Republicans are strong favorites to win a majority in the State Senate.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 7:00 pm ET. Fast: counties must report within an hour of close; early votes report first but Atlanta-area counties are slow, so an early R lead tends to narrow (VoteHub). Runoff Dec 1 if no one tops 50% (GA SOS calendar).
Caution: Early votes report first here and lean R; expect D gains later.

SC-01 · ForecastForecast Not yet

Nancy Lacore (D) wins

Southern long shot (paraphrase, not a quote)

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Forecast SC-Sen: Annie Andrews (D) wins long-shot surprise
Forecast SC-01: Nancy Lacore (D) wins Southern long shot

Politix hosts, Matt Yglesias and Brian Beutler (speaker not confirmed), Co-hosts, Politix podcast (Yglesias: Slow Boring; Beutler: Off Message) Unattributed

Oct 28, 2026 · Podcast

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 7:00 pm ET. Fast: most votes counted by midnight; an extremely close race could take over a week (The Times).

7:30 pm ET

Polls close NC, OH, WV

Key races NC-Sen OH-Sen WV-Sen OH-Gov NC-01 NC-11 OH-07

NC-Sen · BarFair / floor

Cooper (D) wins NC-Sen (else majority much less likely)

“much less likely”

Maham Javaid & Saige Miller, NPR (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“the path to a Democratic majority becomes much less likely if the party loses this one.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 7:30 pm ET. Fast: 95% just after midnight in 2024. ~3/4 voted early in person (reported first); EDay leans R (The Times).
Caution: Early votes report first here and lean D; expect R gains later.

OH-Sen/OH-Gov · BarGreat night

Brown and/or Acton win

“would mark bigger breakthroughs”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Good night OH-01/OH-09/OH-07: Landsman and Kaptur (D) reelected; Poindexter (D) wins OH-7 “would show the party on a solid path”
Great night OH-Sen/OH-Gov: Brown and/or Acton win “would mark bigger breakthroughs”
Great night OH-10/OH-15: D beats Turner (OH-10) or Carey (OH-15) “More surprising”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“Wins for Democrats in the key statewide races would mark bigger breakthroughs.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 7:30 pm ET.
Caution: Counted first: early in-person and absentee. The early count leans D. Later votes: mixed: rural EDay R, then late Columbus and Cleveland EDay D, then provisionals.

OH-Sen/OH-Gov · BarFair / floor

Acton and Brown (D) close in Portage County (not quantified)

“would need to be fairly close in all likelihood”

Kyle Kondik, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball, UVA Center for Politics (X bio)

Oct 28, 2026 · X

“I don’t know if Portage is “must-win” for Ds now but they would need to be fairly close in all likelihood”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 7:30 pm ET.
Caution: Counted first: early in-person and absentee. The early count leans D. Later votes: mixed: rural EDay R, then late Columbus and Cleveland EDay D, then provisionals.

More markers (7)

NC-01 · BarGood night

Davis (D) survives

“signs of a good Democratic performance”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Good night NC-01: Davis (D) survives “signs of a good Democratic performance”
Great night NC-03/NC-09: D wins NC-3 (Murphy) or NC-9 (Hudson) “historic breakthroughs for the party”
Great night NC-11: D (Ager) flips NC-11 “As impressive”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“Other signs of a good Democratic performance will come if Rep. Donald Davis survives in the NC-1 seat”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 7:30 pm ET. Fast: 95% just after midnight in 2024. ~3/4 voted early in person (reported first); EDay leans R (The Times).
Caution: Early votes report first here and lean D; expect R gains later.

NC-03/NC-09 · BarGreat night

D wins NC-3 (Murphy) or NC-9 (Hudson)

“historic breakthroughs for the party”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Good night NC-01: Davis (D) survives “signs of a good Democratic performance”
Great night NC-03/NC-09: D wins NC-3 (Murphy) or NC-9 (Hudson) “historic breakthroughs for the party”
Great night NC-11: D (Ager) flips NC-11 “As impressive”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“or the NC-9 seat now held by Richard Hudson, chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee — that would signal historic breakthroughs for the party.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 7:30 pm ET.
Caution: Early votes report first here and lean D; expect R gains later.

NC-11 · BarGreat night

D (Ager) flips NC-11

“As impressive”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Good night NC-01: Davis (D) survives “signs of a good Democratic performance”
Great night NC-03/NC-09: D wins NC-3 (Murphy) or NC-9 (Hudson) “historic breakthroughs for the party”
Great night NC-11: D (Ager) flips NC-11 “As impressive”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“As impressive will be if moderate Democrat Jamie Ager flips NC-11”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 7:30 pm ET. Fast: 95% just after midnight in 2024. ~3/4 voted early in person (reported first); EDay leans R (The Times).
Caution: Early votes report first here and lean D; expect R gains later.

OH-01/OH-09/OH-07 · BarGood night

Landsman and Kaptur (D) reelected; Poindexter (D) wins OH-7

“would show the party on a solid path”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Good night OH-01/OH-09/OH-07: Landsman and Kaptur (D) reelected; Poindexter (D) wins OH-7 “would show the party on a solid path”
Great night OH-Sen/OH-Gov: Brown and/or Acton win “would mark bigger breakthroughs”
Great night OH-10/OH-15: D beats Turner (OH-10) or Carey (OH-15) “More surprising”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“reelection victories for Democratic incumbents Greg Landsman in OH-1 and especially Marcy Kaptur in OH-9 would show the party on a solid path.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 7:30 pm ET. Fast: 95% by midnight; absentee ballots now due by close. Early/absentee first (blue start), then rural EDay (red), then late Columbus/Cleveland EDay (VoteHub).
Caution: Counted first: early in-person and absentee. The early count leans D. Later votes: mixed: rural EDay R, then late Columbus and Cleveland EDay D, then provisionals.

OH-10/OH-15 · BarGreat night

D beats Turner (OH-10) or Carey (OH-15)

“More surprising”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Good night OH-01/OH-09/OH-07: Landsman and Kaptur (D) reelected; Poindexter (D) wins OH-7 “would show the party on a solid path”
Great night OH-Sen/OH-Gov: Brown and/or Acton win “would mark bigger breakthroughs”
Great night OH-10/OH-15: D beats Turner (OH-10) or Carey (OH-15) “More surprising”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“More surprising would be Democratic upsets in either the OH-10 or OH-15 districts now held by GOP Reps. Mike Turner and Mike Carey, respectively.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 7:30 pm ET.
Caution: Counted first: early in-person and absentee. The early count leans D. Later votes: mixed: rural EDay R, then late Columbus and Cleveland EDay D, then provisionals.

NC-legislature · ForecastForecast Not yet

D flips one NC legislative chamber

outside chance (paraphrase, not a quote)

Politix hosts, Matt Yglesias and Brian Beutler (speaker not confirmed), Co-hosts, Politix podcast (Yglesias: Slow Boring; Beutler: Off Message) Unattributed

Oct 28, 2026 · Podcast

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 7:30 pm ET.
Caution: Early votes report first here and lean D; expect R gains later.

NC-legislature · ForecastForecast Not yet

NC House D narrow favorites (59-61 favored seats); NC Senate R solid favorites (23-27)

State Navigate (model; executive director Chaz Nuttycombe), State Navigate, nonpartisan 501(c)(3) state-legislature forecaster (site)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“North Carolina Democrats are narrow favorites to win a majority in the State House.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 7:30 pm ET.
Caution: Early votes report first here and lean D; expect R gains later.

8:00 pm ET

Polls close AL, CT, DC, DE, IL, KS, MA, MD, ME, MI, MO, MS, NJ, OK, PA, RI, TN, TX, AR at 8:30 pm · also FL (Central), NH (late-closing towns), SD (Central)

Arkansas closes at 8:30 pm ET; its markers sit in this hour.

Key races AL-Sen AR-Sen DE-Sen FL-Sen IL-Sen KS-Sen MA-Sen ME-Sen MI-Sen MS-Sen NH-Sen NJ-Sen OK-Sen RI-Sen SD-Sen TN-Sen TX-Sen AL-Gov AR-Gov FL-Gov KS-Gov MA-Gov ME-Gov MI-Gov NH-Gov PA-Gov TN-Gov TX-Gov ME-02 MI-04 MI-07 NJ-07 PA-01 PA-07 PA-08 PA-10 TX-15 TX-23 TX-28 TX-34 TX-35 MI-AG MI-HouseChamber MI-SenateChamber MI-SoS PA-HouseChamber PA-SenateChamber TX-RRC

MI-Sen · BarNecessary condition

El-Sayed (D) margin in Oakland County ≥ +12 (Slotkin 2024)

“An el-Sayed underperformance there wipes out the gains in those Wayne cities”

Steve Kornacki, Chief Data Analyst, NBC News (X bio)

Oct 27, 2026 · X

“The key place to watch is Oakland County, second largest in the state, which Slotkin won by 12 over Rogers in '24.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Slow: about half counted by midnight (2022, 2024), ~95% by 6 am Wed. Big counties (Wayne, Oakland, Kent, Genesee, Washtenaw) release little early; Detroit absentees late. AP will not call statewide races before 21 ET (UP Central-time counties). Automatic recount at <=0.1%.
Caution: Counted first: mix of mail, early in-person and EDay; big counties release little early. The early count is mixed. Later votes lean D.
2024 baseline: A swing of 1.4 points toward D from 2024 (Oakland County was +10.6 for Harris, 2024 presidential).

MI-Sen · BarFair / floor

El-Sayed share in Wayne County ≥ 68% (unless suburbs overperform)

“needed 68% or more”

Domenico Montanaro, NPR (byline; title not shown on page)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“During the Trump era, Democrats have needed 68% or more in Wayne County to win Michigan”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Slow: about half counted by midnight (2022, 2024), ~95% by 6 am Wed. Big counties (Wayne, Oakland, Kent, Genesee, Washtenaw) release little early; Detroit absentees late. AP will not call statewide races before 21 ET (UP Central-time counties). Automatic recount at <=0.1%.
Caution: Counted first: mix of mail, early in-person and EDay; big counties release little early. The early count is mixed. Later votes lean D.

TX-Sen · BarGood night

Bell County (TX) goes D if Talarico wins

“a candidate to go blue if Talarico wins”

Kyle Kondik, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball, UVA Center for Politics (X bio)

Oct 29, 2026 · X

“Bell seems like a candidate to go blue if Talarico wins, too”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Fast: 80-90% by midnight, 99% before 7 am (NYT). Early vote reports first and leans D this year; rural EDay votes narrow it; Dallas/Harris EDay late (VoteHub). El Paso/Hudspeth close 21 ET.
Caution: Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans D. Later votes lean R, then late Dallas and Harris EDay D.

More markers (53)

MI-Sen · BarGreat night

El-Sayed wins

“too strong for Republicans to overcome”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Fair / floor MI-Gov: Benson wins comfortably “the baseline for a good Democratic night”
Good night MI-04/MI-07: D flips MI-4 and MI-7 “staying on track for a good night”
Great night MI-Sen: El-Sayed wins “too strong for Republicans to overcome”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“But if El-Sayed survives this firestorm, even amid conspicuous defections by some Jewish Democrats, it will be another indication the Trump undertow”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Slow: about half counted by midnight (2022, 2024), ~95% by 6 am Wed. Big counties (Wayne, Oakland, Kent, Genesee, Washtenaw) release little early; Detroit absentees late. AP will not call statewide races before 21 ET (UP Central-time counties). Automatic recount at <=0.1%.
Caution: Counted first: mix of mail, early in-person and EDay; big counties release little early. The early count is mixed. Later votes lean D.

ME-Sen · BarGreat night

D (Jackson) beats Collins

“Democrats are exceeding expectations”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Good night ME-Gov: D (Pingree) wins comfortably “meeting its marks for a solid night”
Great night ME-Sen: D (Jackson) beats Collins “Democrats are exceeding expectations”
Great night ME-02: D (Dunlap) holds ME-02 “signal an even better night”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“If Jackson wins, it will be another sign that Democrats are exceeding expectations”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Slow: ~1.5 days to 95% (2024). RCV applies to US Senate and ME-02: only first choices on the night; RCV tabulation days later if no majority (ME-02 RCV result took 10 days in 2024).
Caution: Ranked-choice race: only first choices are known on the night.

TX-Gov · BarGreat night

Hinojosa (D) beats Abbott

“an even more historic breakthrough”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Necessary condition TX-15/TX-35: Pulido (D) wins TX-15 and/or Garcia (D) wins TX-35 “Democrats overperforming among Hispanics”
Good night TX-28/TX-34: Cuellar and Gonzalez (D) reelected “would show the party meeting expectations”
Great night TX-Gov: Hinojosa (D) beats Abbott “an even more historic breakthrough”
Great night TX-Sen: Talarico wins “progressing toward a very good night”
Great night TX-23: D (Padilla Stout) beats Herrera “a Democratic tide reaching tsunami levels”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“Democrat Gina Hinojosa beats Republican Greg Abbott in the Texas governor race, despite his massive spending advantage, that would represent an even more historic breakthrough”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Fast: 80-90% by midnight, 99% before 7 am (NYT). Early vote reports first and leans D this year; rural EDay votes narrow it; Dallas/Harris EDay late (VoteHub). El Paso/Hudspeth close 21 ET.
Caution: Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans D. Later votes lean R, then late Dallas and Harris EDay D.

MI-Gov · BarFair / floor

Benson wins comfortably

“the baseline for a good Democratic night”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Fair / floor MI-Gov: Benson wins comfortably “the baseline for a good Democratic night”
Good night MI-04/MI-07: D flips MI-4 and MI-7 “staying on track for a good night”
Great night MI-Sen: El-Sayed wins “too strong for Republicans to overcome”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“a comfortable win for Democrat Jocelyn Benson in the Michigan governor race is the baseline for a good Democratic night.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Slow: about half counted by midnight (2022, 2024), ~95% by 6 am Wed. Big counties (Wayne, Oakland, Kent, Genesee, Washtenaw) release little early; Detroit absentees late. AP will not call statewide races before 21 ET (UP Central-time counties). Automatic recount at <=0.1%.
Caution: Counted first: mix of mail, early in-person and EDay; big counties release little early. The early count is mixed. Later votes lean D.

MS-Sen · BarGreat night

Colom (D) beats Hyde-Smith

“would be even more remarkable”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“A victory for Democrat Scott Colom over Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith in the Mississippi Senate race would be even more remarkable”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Fast-ish: 84% by midnight in 2024 (NYT).

TX-15/TX-23/TX-34/TX-35 · BarNecessary condition

D wins ≥ 3 of TX-15, TX-23, TX-34, TX-35

“sweep up most of them”

Max Kendix, The Times (London), byline 'Max Kendix, Washington'

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“If the Democrats can sweep up most of them, it could indicate a reaction against Trump’s immigration crackdown”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 8:00 pm ET.
Caution: Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans D. Later votes lean R, then late Dallas and Harris EDay D.

TX-15/TX-35 · BarNecessary condition

Pulido (D) wins TX-15 and/or Garcia (D) wins TX-35

“Democrats overperforming among Hispanics”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Necessary condition TX-15/TX-35: Pulido (D) wins TX-15 and/or Garcia (D) wins TX-35 “Democrats overperforming among Hispanics”
Good night TX-28/TX-34: Cuellar and Gonzalez (D) reelected “would show the party meeting expectations”
Great night TX-Gov: Hinojosa (D) beats Abbott “an even more historic breakthrough”
Great night TX-Sen: Talarico wins “progressing toward a very good night”
Great night TX-23: D (Padilla Stout) beats Herrera “a Democratic tide reaching tsunami levels”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“and/or sheriff’s deputy Johnny Garcia holds TX-35 (an open seat Trump carried by almost 11 points), it would show Democrats overperforming among Hispanics.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 8:00 pm ET.
Caution: Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans D. Later votes lean R, then late Dallas and Harris EDay D.

TX-Sen · BarWarning sign

Paxton holds → R still has Senate path

“Republicans still have a path to keeping their Senate majority”

Hans Nichols, Axios (byline)

Oct 31, 2026 · Web

“If Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton holds on, Republicans still have a path to keeping their Senate majority.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Fast: 80-90% by midnight, 99% before 7 am (NYT). Early vote reports first and leans D this year; rural EDay votes narrow it; Dallas/Harris EDay late (VoteHub). El Paso/Hudspeth close 21 ET.
Caution: Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans D. Later votes lean R, then late Dallas and Harris EDay D.

TX-Sen · BarFair / floor

Talarico combined margin ≥ 0

“break even in the combined tally”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Fair / floor TX-Sen: Talarico combined margin ≥ 0 “break even in the combined tally”
Fair / floor TX-Sen: Talarico margin in Tarrant ≥ ~9 (just shy of double digits) “will probably have to go Talarico’s way”
Good night TX-Sen: Austin MSA share > 10% victory

Spencer Lieb, Center for Politics intern, writing for Sabato's Crystal Ball (editors' note)

Oct 31, 2026 · Substack

“Talarico will probably have to break even in the combined tally here to win statewide.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Fast: 80-90% by midnight, 99% before 7 am (NYT). Early vote reports first and leans D this year; rural EDay votes narrow it; Dallas/Harris EDay late (VoteHub). El Paso/Hudspeth close 21 ET.
Caution: Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans D. Later votes lean R, then late Dallas and Harris EDay D.
2024 baseline: A swing of 13.8 points toward D from 2024 (Collin + Denton + Rockwall combined was -13.8 for Harris, 2024 presidential).

TX-Sen · BarFair / floor

Talarico margin in Tarrant ≥ ~9 (just shy of double digits)

“will probably have to go Talarico’s way”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Fair / floor TX-Sen: Talarico combined margin ≥ 0 “break even in the combined tally”
Fair / floor TX-Sen: Talarico margin in Tarrant ≥ ~9 (just shy of double digits) “will probably have to go Talarico’s way”
Good night TX-Sen: Austin MSA share > 10% victory

Spencer Lieb, Center for Politics intern, writing for Sabato's Crystal Ball (editors' note)

Oct 31, 2026 · Substack

“This leftward trend suggests that Tarrant will probably have to go Talarico’s way by just shy of double digits.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Fast: 80-90% by midnight, 99% before 7 am (NYT). Early vote reports first and leans D this year; rural EDay votes narrow it; Dallas/Harris EDay late (VoteHub). El Paso/Hudspeth close 21 ET.
Caution: Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans D. Later votes lean R, then late Dallas and Harris EDay D.
2024 baseline: A swing of about 14.1 points toward D from 2024 (Tarrant County was -5.1 for Harris, 2024 presidential).

TX-Sen · BarGreat night

Talarico wins

“progressing toward a very good night”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Necessary condition TX-15/TX-35: Pulido (D) wins TX-15 and/or Garcia (D) wins TX-35 “Democrats overperforming among Hispanics”
Good night TX-28/TX-34: Cuellar and Gonzalez (D) reelected “would show the party meeting expectations”
Great night TX-Gov: Hinojosa (D) beats Abbott “an even more historic breakthrough”
Great night TX-Sen: Talarico wins “progressing toward a very good night”
Great night TX-23: D (Padilla Stout) beats Herrera “a Democratic tide reaching tsunami levels”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“despite massive Republican super PAC spending funded by Elon Musk and others, would show Democrats progressing toward a very good night”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Fast: 80-90% by midnight, 99% before 7 am (NYT). Early vote reports first and leans D this year; rural EDay votes narrow it; Dallas/Harris EDay late (VoteHub). El Paso/Hudspeth close 21 ET.
Caution: Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans D. Later votes lean R, then late Dallas and Harris EDay D.

TX-Sen · BarGood night

Talarico share > Collin 47%, Denton 46%, Tarrant 51%

“As a bonus”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Fair / floor TX-Sen: Talarico share > Cameron 63%, Hidalgo 69%, Webb 71%, Nueces 51% “would need to improve on”
Necessary condition TX-Sen: Abbott votes - Paxton votes > 400,000 Necessary condition
Good night TX-Sen: Talarico share > Collin 47%, Denton 46%, Tarrant 51% “As a bonus”
Good night TX-Sen: Talarico Latino share > 64% AND Latino share of electorate > 26% “that's how he wins the seat”

Domenico Montanaro, NPR (byline; title not shown on page)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“As a bonus, watch the fast-growing and heavily populated Dallas suburbs – Collin 47%, Denton 46%, Tarrant 51%.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Fast: 80-90% by midnight, 99% before 7 am (NYT). Early vote reports first and leans D this year; rural EDay votes narrow it; Dallas/Harris EDay late (VoteHub). El Paso/Hudspeth close 21 ET.
Caution: Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans D. Later votes lean R, then late Dallas and Harris EDay D.

TX-Sen · BarFair / floor

Talarico share > Cameron 63%, Hidalgo 69%, Webb 71%, Nueces 51%

“would need to improve on”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Fair / floor TX-Sen: Talarico share > Cameron 63%, Hidalgo 69%, Webb 71%, Nueces 51% “would need to improve on”
Necessary condition TX-Sen: Abbott votes - Paxton votes > 400,000 Necessary condition
Good night TX-Sen: Talarico share > Collin 47%, Denton 46%, Tarrant 51% “As a bonus”
Good night TX-Sen: Talarico Latino share > 64% AND Latino share of electorate > 26% “that's how he wins the seat”

Domenico Montanaro, NPR (byline; title not shown on page)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“Talarico would need to improve on O'Rourke's totals in these Latino-heavy counties: Cameron 63%, Hidalgo 69%, Webb 71%, Nueces 51%.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Fast: 80-90% by midnight, 99% before 7 am (NYT). Early vote reports first and leans D this year; rural EDay votes narrow it; Dallas/Harris EDay late (VoteHub). El Paso/Hudspeth close 21 ET.
Caution: Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans D. Later votes lean R, then late Dallas and Harris EDay D.

TX-Sen · BarGood night

Talarico Latino share > 64% AND Latino share of electorate > 26%

“that's how he wins the seat”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Fair / floor TX-Sen: Talarico share > Cameron 63%, Hidalgo 69%, Webb 71%, Nueces 51% “would need to improve on”
Necessary condition TX-Sen: Abbott votes - Paxton votes > 400,000 Necessary condition
Good night TX-Sen: Talarico share > Collin 47%, Denton 46%, Tarrant 51% “As a bonus”
Good night TX-Sen: Talarico Latino share > 64% AND Latino share of electorate > 26% “that's how he wins the seat”

Domenico Montanaro, NPR (byline; title not shown on page)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“If Talarico is north of both of those, that's how he wins the seat.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Fast: 80-90% by midnight, 99% before 7 am (NYT). Early vote reports first and leans D this year; rural EDay votes narrow it; Dallas/Harris EDay late (VoteHub). El Paso/Hudspeth close 21 ET.
Caution: Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans D. Later votes lean R, then late Dallas and Harris EDay D.

TX-Sen · BarFair / floor

Talarico (D) carries Collin AND Denton counties

“almost certainly needs to flip”

Dave Wasserman, Senior Editor & Elections Analyst, Cook Political Report

Nov 1, 2026 · X

“But the two counties Talarico almost certainly needs to flip that O'Rourke didn't: Collin and Denton.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Fast: 80-90% by midnight, 99% before 7 am (NYT). Early vote reports first and leans D this year; rural EDay votes narrow it; Dallas/Harris EDay late (VoteHub). El Paso/Hudspeth close 21 ET.
Caution: Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans D. Later votes lean R, then late Dallas and Harris EDay D.

TX-Sen · BarFair / floor

Talarico (D) carries Collin AND Denton counties

“needs to flip”

Dave Wasserman, Senior Editor & Elections Analyst, Cook Political Report

Nov 1, 2026 · X

“The two R counties Talarico needs to flip: Collin & Denton, home to another 8% of TX's voters.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Fast: 80-90% by midnight, 99% before 7 am (NYT). Early vote reports first and leans D this year; rural EDay votes narrow it; Dallas/Harris EDay late (VoteHub). El Paso/Hudspeth close 21 ET.
Caution: Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans D. Later votes lean R, then late Dallas and Harris EDay D.

TX-Sen · BarNecessary condition

Talarico early-returns lead ≤ 4 = Paxton favored (expected lead ~7)

“a lead of 4 or less favors Paxton”

Nov 2, 2026 · X

“Election night: Talarico likely leads early returns by about 7; a lead of 4 or less favors Paxton.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Fast: 80-90% by midnight, 99% before 7 am (NYT). Early vote reports first and leans D this year; rural EDay votes narrow it; Dallas/Harris EDay late (VoteHub). El Paso/Hudspeth close 21 ET.
Caution: Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans D. Later votes lean R, then late Dallas and Harris EDay D.

TX-Sen · BarNecessary condition

Abbott votes - Paxton votes > 400,000

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Fair / floor TX-Sen: Talarico share > Cameron 63%, Hidalgo 69%, Webb 71%, Nueces 51% “would need to improve on”
Necessary condition TX-Sen: Abbott votes - Paxton votes > 400,000 Necessary condition
Good night TX-Sen: Talarico share > Collin 47%, Denton 46%, Tarrant 51% “As a bonus”
Good night TX-Sen: Talarico Latino share > 64% AND Latino share of electorate > 26% “that's how he wins the seat”

Domenico Montanaro, NPR (byline; title not shown on page)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“So watch if the difference between Abbott and Paxton is more than 400,000 for Talarico.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Fast: 80-90% by midnight, 99% before 7 am (NYT). Early vote reports first and leans D this year; rural EDay votes narrow it; Dallas/Harris EDay late (VoteHub). El Paso/Hudspeth close 21 ET.
Caution: Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans D. Later votes lean R, then late Dallas and Harris EDay D.

TX-Sen · BarNecessary condition

no-primary voters even = Talarico +1; lean D by 5 = +3; by 8 = +4

Nov 2, 2026 · X

“Split evenly: Talarico +1. Lean D by 5: Talarico +3. By 8: Talarico +4.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Fast: 80-90% by midnight, 99% before 7 am (NYT). Early vote reports first and leans D this year; rural EDay votes narrow it; Dallas/Harris EDay late (VoteHub). El Paso/Hudspeth close 21 ET.
Caution: Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans D. Later votes lean R, then late Dallas and Harris EDay D.

FL-Gov · BarGreat night

Jolly (D) beats Donalds

“a very good night for Florida Democrats”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Good night FL-25: Moskowitz (D) wins “a positive trend for Democrats”
Great night FL-13/FL-07: D wins FL-13 or FL-7 “a very good night for Florida Democrats”
Great night FL-14/FL-09: Castor (D) holds FL-14; Soto (D) holds FL-9 “an even stronger current”
Great night FL-27: D ousts Salazar “The storm will reach historic proportions”
Great night FL-Gov: Jolly (D) beats Donalds “a very good night for Florida Democrats”
Great night FL-Sen: Nixon (D) beats Moody “the gale will reach Category 5 levels”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“So would a victory by Democratic nominee David Jolly, a former Republican, over Byron Donalds in the Florida governor race.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Very fast: ~99% by midnight in recent generals. Most of FL closes 19 ET but statewide results post from 20 ET (DOS) and AP will not call statewide races before 20 ET.
Caution: Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans R.

FL-Sen · BarGreat night

Nixon (D) beats Moody

“the gale will reach Category 5 levels”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Good night FL-25: Moskowitz (D) wins “a positive trend for Democrats”
Great night FL-13/FL-07: D wins FL-13 or FL-7 “a very good night for Florida Democrats”
Great night FL-14/FL-09: Castor (D) holds FL-14; Soto (D) holds FL-9 “an even stronger current”
Great night FL-27: D ousts Salazar “The storm will reach historic proportions”
Great night FL-Gov: Jolly (D) beats Donalds “a very good night for Florida Democrats”
Great night FL-Sen: Nixon (D) beats Moody “the gale will reach Category 5 levels”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“the gale will reach Category 5 levels if progressive Democrat Angie Nixon beats Republican Ashley Moody in the Florida Senate race.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Very fast: ~99% by midnight in recent generals. Most of FL closes 19 ET but statewide results post from 20 ET (DOS) and AP will not call statewide races before 20 ET.
Caution: Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans R.

ME-02 · BarGreat night

D (Dunlap) holds ME-02

“signal an even better night”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Good night ME-Gov: D (Pingree) wins comfortably “meeting its marks for a solid night”
Great night ME-Sen: D (Jackson) beats Collins “Democrats are exceeding expectations”
Great night ME-02: D (Dunlap) holds ME-02 “signal an even better night”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“Matthew Dunlap beats former GOP Gov. Paul LePage to hold the heavily blue-collar and rural ME-2 Congressional District, that will signal an even better night”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Slow: ~1.5 days to 95% (2024). RCV applies to US Senate and ME-02: only first choices on the night; RCV tabulation days later if no majority (ME-02 RCV result took 10 days in 2024).
Caution: Ranked-choice race: only first choices are known on the night.

ME-Gov · BarGood night

D (Pingree) wins comfortably

“meeting its marks for a solid night”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Good night ME-Gov: D (Pingree) wins comfortably “meeting its marks for a solid night”
Great night ME-Sen: D (Jackson) beats Collins “Democrats are exceeding expectations”
Great night ME-02: D (Dunlap) holds ME-02 “signal an even better night”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“a comfortable victory for Democrat Hannah Pingree in the Maine governor race will be a sign that the party is meeting its marks”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Slow: ~1.5 days to 95% (2024). RCV applies to US Senate and ME-02: only first choices on the night; RCV tabulation days later if no majority (ME-02 RCV result took 10 days in 2024).
Caution: Ranked-choice race: only first choices are known on the night.

MI-04/MI-07 · BarGood night

D flips MI-4 and MI-7

“staying on track for a good night”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Fair / floor MI-Gov: Benson wins comfortably “the baseline for a good Democratic night”
Good night MI-04/MI-07: D flips MI-4 and MI-7 “staying on track for a good night”
Great night MI-Sen: El-Sayed wins “too strong for Republicans to overcome”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“Flipping Republican-held House seats in MI-4 and MI-7 would also show Democrats staying on track for a good night”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 8:00 pm ET.
Caution: Counted first: mix of mail, early in-person and EDay; big counties release little early. The early count is mixed. Later votes lean D.

NJ-07 · BarGood night

D (Bennett) beats Kean

“on track for a good night”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“in the NJ-7 House race, another well-educated district Trump won narrowly, would show the party on track for a good night.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 8:00 pm ET.

PA-01 · BarGreat night

D (Harvie) beats Fitzpatrick

“another sign of a historic wave”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Good night PA-07/PA-10: D beats Mackenzie (PA-7) and Perry (PA-10) “on track for a solid performance”
Great night PA-01: D (Harvie) beats Fitzpatrick “another sign of a historic wave”
Great night PA-08: D (Cognetti) beats Bresnahan “Republicans will grow even more nervous”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“If Democrat Bob Harvie beats Fitzpatrick, that will be another sign of a historic wave”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Medium: 97% by noon the next day in the past two cycles (NYT).

PA-07/PA-10 · BarGood night

D beats Mackenzie (PA-7) and Perry (PA-10)

“on track for a solid performance”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Good night PA-07/PA-10: D beats Mackenzie (PA-7) and Perry (PA-10) “on track for a solid performance”
Great night PA-01: D (Harvie) beats Fitzpatrick “another sign of a historic wave”
Great night PA-08: D (Cognetti) beats Bresnahan “Republicans will grow even more nervous”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“Democrats will be on track for a solid performance if they beat Republican incumbents in Ryan Mackenzie in PA-7 and Scott Perry in PA-10”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 8:00 pm ET.

PA-08 · BarGreat night

D (Cognetti) beats Bresnahan

“Republicans will grow even more nervous”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Good night PA-07/PA-10: D beats Mackenzie (PA-7) and Perry (PA-10) “on track for a solid performance”
Great night PA-01: D (Harvie) beats Fitzpatrick “another sign of a historic wave”
Great night PA-08: D (Cognetti) beats Bresnahan “Republicans will grow even more nervous”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“Republicans will grow even more nervous if Democrat Paige Cognetti ousts first-term GOP Rep. Rob Bresnahan in PA-8”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Medium: 97% by noon the next day in the past two cycles (NYT).

TX-23 · BarGreat night

D (Padilla Stout) beats Herrera

“a Democratic tide reaching tsunami levels”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Necessary condition TX-15/TX-35: Pulido (D) wins TX-15 and/or Garcia (D) wins TX-35 “Democrats overperforming among Hispanics”
Good night TX-28/TX-34: Cuellar and Gonzalez (D) reelected “would show the party meeting expectations”
Great night TX-Gov: Hinojosa (D) beats Abbott “an even more historic breakthrough”
Great night TX-Sen: Talarico wins “progressing toward a very good night”
Great night TX-23: D (Padilla Stout) beats Herrera “a Democratic tide reaching tsunami levels”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“upset win for Democrat Katy Padilla Stout over bomb-throwing Republican Brandon Herrera in the open TX-23 seat would capture a Democratic tide reaching tsunami levels.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 8:00 pm ET. If TX-23 includes Mountain-time El Paso County precincts, last polls close 21 ET (CNN lists TX-23 at 21); 2025-map county list not checked. Fast: 80-90% by midnight, 99% before 7 am (NYT). Early vote reports first and leans D this year; rural EDay votes narrow it; Dallas/Harris EDay late (VoteHub). El Paso/Hudspeth close 21 ET.
Caution: Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans D. Later votes lean R, then late Dallas and Harris EDay D.

TX-28/TX-34 · BarGood night

Cuellar and Gonzalez (D) reelected

“would show the party meeting expectations”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Necessary condition TX-15/TX-35: Pulido (D) wins TX-15 and/or Garcia (D) wins TX-35 “Democrats overperforming among Hispanics”
Good night TX-28/TX-34: Cuellar and Gonzalez (D) reelected “would show the party meeting expectations”
Great night TX-Gov: Hinojosa (D) beats Abbott “an even more historic breakthrough”
Great night TX-Sen: Talarico wins “progressing toward a very good night”
Great night TX-23: D (Padilla Stout) beats Herrera “a Democratic tide reaching tsunami levels”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“in South Texas seats Republicans redistricted to undercut the incumbents would show the party meeting expectations”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 8:00 pm ET.
Caution: Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans D. Later votes lean R, then late Dallas and Harris EDay D.

FL-statewide · BarGood night

FL D swing vs 2024 ~ 7 pts → national ~ D+9 (add a couple of points)

hunch (paraphrase, not a quote)

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Good night county:Miami-Dade FL: Miami-Dade Latino House seats swing toward D in line with national polls the polls were right
Good night FL-statewide: FL D swing vs 2024 ~ 7 pts → national ~ D+9 (add a couple of points) hunch

Politix hosts, Matt Yglesias and Brian Beutler (speaker not confirmed), Co-hosts, Politix podcast (Yglesias: Slow Boring; Beutler: Off Message) Unattributed

Oct 28, 2026 · Podcast

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 8:00 pm ET.
Caution: Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans R.

MI-Sen · ForecastForecast Not yet

D wins

Matthew Yglesias, Slow Boring; Politix co-host (identity per handle)

Oct 31, 2026 · Bluesky

“I think Dems can probably pull out a win in Michigan.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Slow: about half counted by midnight (2022, 2024), ~95% by 6 am Wed. Big counties (Wayne, Oakland, Kent, Genesee, Washtenaw) release little early; Detroit absentees late. AP will not call statewide races before 21 ET (UP Central-time counties). Automatic recount at <=0.1%.
Caution: Counted first: mix of mail, early in-person and EDay; big counties release little early. The early count is mixed. Later votes lean D.

TX-RRC · ForecastForecast Not yet

toss-up (Rosenthal D vs French R)

“Railroad Commission, toss-up.”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Forecast TX-RRC: toss-up (Rosenthal D vs French R) “Railroad Commission, toss-up.”
Forecast TX-Sen/TX-Gov/TX-LtGov/TX-AG/TX-Comptroller: TX-Sen D +3; TX-Gov R +2.5; Lt Gov and AG R +3.5; Comptroller R +5 Forecast

Nov 2, 2026 · X

“Railroad Commission, toss-up.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Fast: 80-90% by midnight, 99% before 7 am (NYT). Early vote reports first and leans D this year; rural EDay votes narrow it; Dallas/Harris EDay late (VoteHub). El Paso/Hudspeth close 21 ET.
Caution: Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans D. Later votes lean R, then late Dallas and Harris EDay D.

ME-Sen · ForecastForecast Not yet

Collins (R) beats Troy Jackson (D)

plausible surprise (not rooted for) (paraphrase, not a quote)

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Forecast ME-Sen: Collins (R) beats Troy Jackson (D) plausible surprise (not rooted for)
Forecast ME-02: Matt Dunlap (D) wins now expected to win

Politix hosts, Matt Yglesias and Brian Beutler (speaker not confirmed), Co-hosts, Politix podcast (Yglesias: Slow Boring; Beutler: Off Message) Unattributed

Oct 28, 2026 · Podcast

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Slow: ~1.5 days to 95% (2024). RCV applies to US Senate and ME-02: only first choices on the night; RCV tabulation days later if no majority (ME-02 RCV result took 10 days in 2024).
Caution: Ranked-choice race: only first choices are known on the night.

MS-Sen · ForecastForecast Not scored

Scott Colom (D) has a real chance vs Cindy Hyde-Smith

“a fighter's chance”

Politix hosts, Matt Yglesias and Brian Beutler (speaker not confirmed), Co-hosts, Politix podcast (Yglesias: Slow Boring; Beutler: Off Message) Unattributed

Oct 28, 2026 · Podcast

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Fast-ish: 84% by midnight in 2024 (NYT).

TX-Sen · ForecastForecast Not yet

Talarico (D) wins (model: Likely D)

“Talarico at Likely D”

Lakshya Jain, Polling and political data, The Argument; co-founder, Split Ticket (X bio)

Nov 1, 2026 · X

“P(D Senate) at 77% now. Talarico at Likely D.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Fast: 80-90% by midnight, 99% before 7 am (NYT). Early vote reports first and leans D this year; rural EDay votes narrow it; Dallas/Harris EDay late (VoteHub). El Paso/Hudspeth close 21 ET.
Caution: Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans D. Later votes lean R, then late Dallas and Harris EDay D.

TX-Sen/OH-Sen · ForecastForecast Not yet

TX-Sen and OH-Sen Tilt D

“Toss-up ➡️ Tilt Dem”

Jacob Rubashkin, Deputy editor, Inside Elections (Bluesky bio)

Oct 29, 2026 · Bluesky

“TX-SEN: Toss-up ➡️ Tilt Dem”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 8:00 pm ET.

MI-Gov · ForecastForecast Not yet

Benson 54.3%, 94%

State Navigate (model; executive director Chaz Nuttycombe), State Navigate, nonpartisan 501(c)(3) state-legislature forecaster (site)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“Jocelyn Benson is projected to get 54.3% of the vote and has a 94% chance of winning.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Slow: about half counted by midnight (2022, 2024), ~95% by 6 am Wed. Big counties (Wayne, Oakland, Kent, Genesee, Washtenaw) release little early; Detroit absentees late. AP will not call statewide races before 21 ET (UP Central-time counties). Automatic recount at <=0.1%.
Caution: Counted first: mix of mail, early in-person and EDay; big counties release little early. The early count is mixed. Later votes lean D.

TX-15/TX-35 · ForecastForecast Not yet

D wins TX-15 (Bobby Pulido) and TX-35 (Johnny Garcia)

might (paraphrase, not a quote)

Politix hosts, Matt Yglesias and Brian Beutler (speaker not confirmed), Co-hosts, Politix podcast (Yglesias: Slow Boring; Beutler: Off Message) Unattributed

Oct 28, 2026 · Podcast

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 8:00 pm ET.
Caution: Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans D. Later votes lean R, then late Dallas and Harris EDay D.

FL-Sen · ForecastForecast Not yet

Nixon (D) loses FL-Sen

“very likely losing”

G. Elliott Morris, data-driven journalist, pollster; Substack Strength In Numbers; 50+1 (per X bio)

Oct 27, 2026 · X

“Nixon is very likely losing the Florida Senate race.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Very fast: ~99% by midnight in recent generals. Most of FL closes 19 ET but statewide results post from 20 ET (DOS) and AP will not call statewide races before 20 ET.
Caution: Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans R.

PA-08 · ForecastForecast Not yet

Paige Cognetti (D) wins

“will probably win”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Forecast PA-07: Bob Brooks (D) wins long shot
Forecast PA-08: Paige Cognetti (D) wins “will probably win”

Politix hosts, Matt Yglesias and Brian Beutler (speaker not confirmed), Co-hosts, Politix podcast (Yglesias: Slow Boring; Beutler: Off Message) Unattributed

Oct 28, 2026 · Podcast

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Medium: 97% by noon the next day in the past two cycles (NYT).

KS-Sen · ForecastForecast Not yet

Adam Hamilton (D) beats Roger Marshall (R)

surprise (paraphrase, not a quote)

Politix hosts, Matt Yglesias and Brian Beutler (speaker not confirmed), Co-hosts, Politix podcast (Yglesias: Slow Boring; Beutler: Off Message) Unattributed

Oct 28, 2026 · Podcast

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Mostly EDay vote; 87% by midnight (2024). NYT says mail ballots postmarked by Election Day have 3 days to arrive; KS SOS says SB 4 (eff. 2026-01-01) requires advance ballots by poll close. CONFLICT, state source preferred. Western (Mountain) counties close 21 ET.
Caution: Counted first: mostly Election Day vote.

ME-02 · ForecastForecast Not yet

Matt Dunlap (D) wins

now expected to win (paraphrase, not a quote)

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Forecast ME-Sen: Collins (R) beats Troy Jackson (D) plausible surprise (not rooted for)
Forecast ME-02: Matt Dunlap (D) wins now expected to win

Politix hosts, Matt Yglesias and Brian Beutler (speaker not confirmed), Co-hosts, Politix podcast (Yglesias: Slow Boring; Beutler: Off Message) Unattributed

Oct 28, 2026 · Podcast

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Slow: ~1.5 days to 95% (2024). RCV applies to US Senate and ME-02: only first choices on the night; RCV tabulation days later if no majority (ME-02 RCV result took 10 days in 2024).
Caution: Ranked-choice race: only first choices are known on the night.

MI-HouseChamber · ForecastForecast Not yet

D favored in 62 of 110 (+10)

State Navigate (model; executive director Chaz Nuttycombe), State Navigate, nonpartisan 501(c)(3) state-legislature forecaster (site)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“Michigan Democrats are strong favorites to win a majority in the State House.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Slow: about half counted by midnight (2022, 2024), ~95% by 6 am Wed. Big counties (Wayne, Oakland, Kent, Genesee, Washtenaw) release little early; Detroit absentees late. AP will not call statewide races before 21 ET (UP Central-time counties). Automatic recount at <=0.1%.
Caution: Counted first: mix of mail, early in-person and EDay; big counties release little early. The early count is mixed. Later votes lean D.

MI-SenateChamber · ForecastForecast Not yet

D favored in 23 of 38 (+3)

State Navigate (model; executive director Chaz Nuttycombe), State Navigate, nonpartisan 501(c)(3) state-legislature forecaster (site)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“Michigan Democrats are overwhelming favorites to win a majority in the State Senate.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Slow: about half counted by midnight (2022, 2024), ~95% by 6 am Wed. Big counties (Wayne, Oakland, Kent, Genesee, Washtenaw) release little early; Detroit absentees late. AP will not call statewide races before 21 ET (UP Central-time counties). Automatic recount at <=0.1%.
Caution: Counted first: mix of mail, early in-person and EDay; big counties release little early. The early count is mixed. Later votes lean D.

MI-SoS/MI-AG · ForecastForecast Not yet

MI-SoS Leans D; MI-AG Toss-up

Leans Democratic (paraphrase, not a quote)

Louis Jacobson, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball (byline)

Oct 29, 2026 · Substack

“Michigan: From Toss-up to Leans Democratic”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 8:00 pm ET.
Caution: Counted first: mix of mail, early in-person and EDay; big counties release little early. The early count is mixed. Later votes lean D.

NH-trifecta · ForecastForecast Not yet

Ayotte (R) 96%; D favored in 252 of 400 House (+73); Senate 12-12

State Navigate (model; executive director Chaz Nuttycombe), State Navigate, nonpartisan 501(c)(3) state-legislature forecaster (site)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“Kelly Ayotte is projected to get 54.0% of the vote and has a 96% chance of winning.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 8:00 pm ET.
Caution: Counted first: eDay.

PA-07 · ForecastForecast Not yet

Bob Brooks (D) wins

long shot (paraphrase, not a quote)

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Forecast PA-07: Bob Brooks (D) wins long shot
Forecast PA-08: Paige Cognetti (D) wins “will probably win”

Politix hosts, Matt Yglesias and Brian Beutler (speaker not confirmed), Co-hosts, Politix podcast (Yglesias: Slow Boring; Beutler: Off Message) Unattributed

Oct 28, 2026 · Podcast

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Medium: 97% by noon the next day in the past two cycles (NYT).

PA-Gov · ForecastForecast Not yet

Shapiro 61.1%, >99%

State Navigate (model; executive director Chaz Nuttycombe), State Navigate, nonpartisan 501(c)(3) state-legislature forecaster (site)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“Josh Shapiro is projected to get 61.1% of the vote and has a >99% chance of winning.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Medium: 97% by noon the next day in the past two cycles (NYT).

PA-HouseChamber · ForecastForecast Not yet

D favored in 112 of 203 (+9)

State Navigate (model; executive director Chaz Nuttycombe), State Navigate, nonpartisan 501(c)(3) state-legislature forecaster (site)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“Pennsylvania Democrats are overwhelming favorites to win a majority in the State House.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Medium: 97% by noon the next day in the past two cycles (NYT).

PA-SenateChamber · ForecastForecast Not yet

D favored in 26 of 50 (+3)

State Navigate (model; executive director Chaz Nuttycombe), State Navigate, nonpartisan 501(c)(3) state-legislature forecaster (site)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“Pennsylvania Democrats are moderate favorites to win a majority in the State Senate.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Medium: 97% by noon the next day in the past two cycles (NYT).

TX-09/TX-23/TX-32/TX-15/TX-28/TX-34/TX-35 · ForecastForecast Not yet

R wins TX-09, TX-23, TX-32; D wins TX-15, TX-28, TX-34, TX-35

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Forecast TX-09/TX-23/TX-32/TX-15/TX-28/TX-34/TX-35: R wins TX-09, TX-23, TX-32; D wins TX-15, TX-28, TX-34, TX-35 Forecast
Forecast TX-HouseChamber/TX-SenateChamber: TX House R 79 - D 71; TX Senate 19-12 (R-D) Forecast

Nov 2, 2026 · X

“Redrawn congressional seats: R win TX-9, 23, 32; D win TX-15, 28, 34, 35.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 8:00 pm ET.
Caution: Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans D. Later votes lean R, then late Dallas and Harris EDay D.

9:00 pm ET

Polls close AZ, CO, IA, LA, MN, NE, NM, NY, WI, WY · also KS (Mountain), MI (Central), SD (Mountain), TX (Mountain)

Key races CO-Sen IA-Sen LA-Sen MN-Sen NE-Sen NM-Sen WY-Sen AZ-Gov IA-Gov WI-Gov AZ-01 AZ-02 AZ-06 CO-05 CO-08 IA-01 IA-03 NY-17 NY-21 WI-03 AZ-HouseChamber AZ-SenateChamber WI-AssemblyChamber WI-SenateChamber

MI-Sen/NH-Sen/MN-Sen · BarWarning sign

R flips any of MI, NH, MN → D path seriously harder

“seriously complicates Democrats' math”

Domenico Montanaro, NPR (byline)

Oct 30, 2026 · Web

“Winning even one of those seriously complicates Democrats' math.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 9:00 pm ET.

MN-Sen · BarFair / floor

Flanagan (D) wins MN-Sen (and El-Sayed wins MI-Sen)

“perhaps fatally set back Democrat chances”

Max Kendix, The Times (London), byline 'Max Kendix, Washington'

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“Just like in Michigan, a Republican win here would perhaps fatally set back Democrat chances of taking the Senate.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 9:00 pm ET. Medium: 56% by midnight in 2024, complete by noon Wed (NYT).

WI-AssemblyChamber/WI-SenateChamber · BarGood night

D flips WI legislature

“On a good night, should flip”

Jeff Singer, Managing editor, The Downballot (episode description)

Oct 29, 2026 · Podcast

“So this feels like one that On a good night, should flip.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 9:00 pm ET.
Caution: Counted first: by geography; Dane and Milwaukee timing drives early totals. The early count is mixed. Later votes lean D.

More markers (29)

AZ-Gov/AZ-01 · BarFair / floor

Hobbs comfortable reelection; D flips AZ-1

“the minimum for a good Democratic night”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Fair / floor AZ-Gov/AZ-01: Hobbs comfortable reelection; D flips AZ-1 “the minimum for a good Democratic night”
Great night AZ-06: D (Mendoza) beats Ciscomani “More impressive”
Great night AZ-02/NV-02: D wins AZ-2 (Nez) or NV-2 “would mark an historic tide”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“a comfortable reelection for Democrat Katie Hobbs over hard-line Republican Andy Biggs, now seems the minimum for a good Democratic night.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 9:00 pm ET.
Caution: Counted first: early mail ballots received before Election Day.

WI-01/WI-Gov · BarGreat night

Berman (D) beats Steil; Crowley wins governor

“would signal something more”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Good night WI-03: Cooke (D) beats Van Orden “would mark a good night for the party”
Great night WI-01/WI-Gov: Berman (D) beats Steil; Crowley wins governor “would signal something more”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“and for Democrat David Crowley in the open seat Wisconsin governor race, would signal something more.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 9:00 pm ET. Medium: 95% by 5 am in 2024. Milwaukee central-count absentees report last and typically move the statewide margin ~2 pts toward D (VoteHub).
Caution: Counted first: by geography; Dane and Milwaukee timing drives early totals. The early count is mixed. Later votes lean D.

AZ-06 · BarGreat night

D (Mendoza) beats Ciscomani

“More impressive”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Fair / floor AZ-Gov/AZ-01: Hobbs comfortable reelection; D flips AZ-1 “the minimum for a good Democratic night”
Great night AZ-06: D (Mendoza) beats Ciscomani “More impressive”
Great night AZ-02/NV-02: D wins AZ-2 (Nez) or NV-2 “would mark an historic tide”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“More impressive will be if Democratic Marine veteran JoAnna Mendoza defeats Rep. Juan Ciscomani”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 9:00 pm ET. Slow: mostly mail; full unofficial count takes days (NYT). First results ~10 pm ET.
Caution: Counted first: early mail ballots received before Election Day.

AZ-statewide · BarGood night

D wins remaining GOP-held AZ statewide offices

“other major things Dems could flip in a good night”

Daniel Nichanian, Editor in chief, Bolts (Bluesky bio)

Oct 29, 2026 · Bluesky

“—the remaining statewide offices in Arizona”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 9:00 pm ET.
Caution: Counted first: early mail ballots received before Election Day.

CO-03/CO-04 · BarGreat night

D ousts Hurd (CO-3) or Boebert (CO-4)

“the flood will be mountain-high”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Good night CO-08: D (Rutinel) beats Evans “track with a good Democratic performance”
Great night CO-03/CO-04: D ousts Hurd (CO-3) or Boebert (CO-4) “the flood will be mountain-high”
Great night CO-05: D (Killin) beats Crank “would mark a very good night for the party”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“Lauren Boebert in CO-4, a seat Trump won by more than 18 points, the flood will be mountain-high.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 9:00 pm ET.
Caution: Counted first: mail ballots.

CO-05 · BarGreat night

D (Killin) beats Crank

“would mark a very good night for the party”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Good night CO-08: D (Rutinel) beats Evans “track with a good Democratic performance”
Great night CO-03/CO-04: D ousts Hurd (CO-3) or Boebert (CO-4) “the flood will be mountain-high”
Great night CO-05: D (Killin) beats Crank “would mark a very good night for the party”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“in CO-5, a district Trump won by nine points, would mark a very good night for the party.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 9:00 pm ET. Slow-ish: all-mail; about 4 days to reach 95% (NYT).
Caution: Counted first: mail ballots.

CO-08 · BarGood night

D (Rutinel) beats Evans

“track with a good Democratic performance”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Good night CO-08: D (Rutinel) beats Evans “track with a good Democratic performance”
Great night CO-03/CO-04: D ousts Hurd (CO-3) or Boebert (CO-4) “the flood will be mountain-high”
Great night CO-05: D (Killin) beats Crank “would mark a very good night for the party”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“in a district north of Denver that Trump carried by less than two points, would track with a good Democratic performance.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 9:00 pm ET. Slow-ish: all-mail; about 4 days to reach 95% (NYT).
Caution: Counted first: mail ballots.

IA-01/IA-03/IA-Gov · BarGood night

D beats Miller-Meeks and Nunn; Sand wins governor

“would show the party meeting expectations”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Good night IA-01/IA-03/IA-Gov: D beats Miller-Meeks and Nunn; Sand wins governor “would show the party meeting expectations”
Great night IA-02/IA-Sen: D wins open IA-2 or Turek wins Senate “would mark a bigger wave”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“seats Trump won by eight and four points respectively, would show the party meeting expectations.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 9:00 pm ET.
Caution: Early votes report first here and lean D; expect R gains later.

IA-02/IA-Sen · BarGreat night

D wins open IA-2 or Turek wins Senate

“would mark a bigger wave”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Good night IA-01/IA-03/IA-Gov: D beats Miller-Meeks and Nunn; Sand wins governor “would show the party meeting expectations”
Great night IA-02/IA-Sen: D wins open IA-2 or Turek wins Senate “would mark a bigger wave”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“the more reliably Republican seat being vacated by Ashley Hinson, the party’s Senate nominee, would mark a bigger wave.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 9:00 pm ET. Fast: 90% by midnight, 99% by noon Wed (2024). Early/mail ballots report first and lean D (The Times).
Caution: Early votes report first here and lean D; expect R gains later.

IA-Sen · BarWarning sign

Hinson looking good → night not as bad for R

“the night might not be as bad as many Republicans feared”

Hans Nichols, Axios (byline)

Oct 31, 2026 · Web

“If Hinson is looking good, the night might not be as bad as many Republicans feared.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 9:00 pm ET. Fast: 90% by midnight, 99% by noon Wed (2024). Early/mail ballots report first and lean D (The Times).
Caution: Early votes report first here and lean D; expect R gains later.

KS-Sen/NE-Sen/SD-Sen · BarGreat night

D/independent wins in KS, NE or SD

“squarely into tsunami territory”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“Democratic wins in any of those races would propel the night squarely into tsunami territory.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 9:00 pm ET.

NY-17 · BarGreat night

D (Conley) beats Lawler

“signal a stronger wave”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Great night NY-17: D (Conley) beats Lawler “signal a stronger wave”
Great night NY-21: D (Gendebien) flips NY-21 “the wave will be reaching historic heights”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“in NY-17, yet another white-collar seat Trump narrowly carried, it would signal a stronger wave.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 9:00 pm ET. Medium: most votes by noon Wed; mail ballots have a week to arrive (NYT).

NY-21 · BarGreat night

D (Gendebien) flips NY-21

“the wave will be reaching historic heights”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Great night NY-17: D (Conley) beats Lawler “signal a stronger wave”
Great night NY-21: D (Gendebien) flips NY-21 “the wave will be reaching historic heights”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“flips NY-21, the preponderantly working-class White upstate New York seat being vacated by Rep. Elise Stefanik, the wave will be reaching historic heights.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 9:00 pm ET. Medium: most votes by noon Wed; mail ballots have a week to arrive (NYT).

TX-Gov/FL-Gov/US-House · BarGreat night

D wins TX-Gov and FL-Gov, Trump+10 seats flip, House gain ~30 (later '40+ house seats') = blue tsunami

“Tsunami: all of the above and the crazy shit”

Nov 2, 2026 · X

“the crazy shit like Tx Gov, Fl gov, and Trump +10 points or more flipping everywhere and House gains closer to 30”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 9:00 pm ET.

WI-03 · BarGood night

Cooke (D) beats Van Orden

“would mark a good night for the party”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Good night WI-03: Cooke (D) beats Van Orden “would mark a good night for the party”
Great night WI-01/WI-Gov: Berman (D) beats Steil; Crowley wins governor “would signal something more”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“A win for Democrat Rebecca Cooke over Republican Derrick Van Orden in the WI-3 House race would mark a good night for the party”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 9:00 pm ET. Medium: 95% by 5 am in 2024. Milwaukee central-count absentees report last and typically move the statewide margin ~2 pts toward D (VoteHub).
Caution: Counted first: by geography; Dane and Milwaukee timing drives early totals. The early count is mixed. Later votes lean D.

SC-Sen/LA-Sen/MS-Sen · ForecastForecast Not yet

R holds the SC, LA and MS Senate seats

“I doubt Rs actually lose any of these Senate seats”

Kyle Kondik, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball, UVA Center for Politics (X bio)

Oct 29, 2026 · X

“I doubt Rs actually lose any of these Senate seats (SC, LA, MS) but the margins will be interesting”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 9:00 pm ET.

AZ-02 · ForecastForecast Not yet

Crane (R) holds AZ-02

“the under on AZ-02 (Crane wins)”

Lakshya Jain, Polling and political data, The Argument; co-founder, Split Ticket (X bio)

Oct 29, 2026 · X

“and the under on AZ-02 (Crane wins). Whatever; let's see!”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 9:00 pm ET. Slow: mostly mail; full unofficial count takes days (NYT). First results ~10 pm ET.
Caution: Counted first: early mail ballots received before Election Day.

AZ-Gov · ForecastForecast Not yet

Hobbs (D) wins (Crystal Ball: Likely D)

“it should be a shock if Katie Hobbs lost”

Kyle Kondik, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball, UVA Center for Politics (X bio)

Oct 27, 2026 · X

“maybe the margin won’t be this big but it should be a shock if Katie Hobbs lost”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 9:00 pm ET. Slow: mostly mail; full unofficial count takes days (NYT). First results ~10 pm ET.
Caution: Counted first: early mail ballots received before Election Day.

AZ-02 · ForecastForecast Not yet

Jonathan Nez (D) wins

long shot (paraphrase, not a quote)

Politix hosts, Matt Yglesias and Brian Beutler (speaker not confirmed), Co-hosts, Politix podcast (Yglesias: Slow Boring; Beutler: Off Message) Unattributed

Oct 28, 2026 · Podcast

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 9:00 pm ET. Slow: mostly mail; full unofficial count takes days (NYT). First results ~10 pm ET.
Caution: Counted first: early mail ballots received before Election Day.

AZ-Gov/AZ-legislature · ForecastForecast Not yet

Hobbs wins; D probably flips legislature (AZ trifecta)

Matthew Yglesias, Slow Boring; Politix co-host (Bluesky bio empty; identity per handle, 86K followers, links slowboring.com posts)

Oct 29, 2026 · Bluesky

“Katie Hobbs is gonna get reelected and probably flip the legislature”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 9:00 pm ET.
Caution: Counted first: early mail ballots received before Election Day.

AZ-trifecta · ForecastForecast Not yet

Hobbs 93%; D favored in 34 of 60 House (+7) and 17 of 30 Senate (+4)

State Navigate (model; executive director Chaz Nuttycombe), State Navigate, nonpartisan 501(c)(3) state-legislature forecaster (site)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“Katie Hobbs is projected to get 49.2% of the vote and has a 93% chance of winning.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 9:00 pm ET.
Caution: Counted first: early mail ballots received before Election Day.

WI-trifecta · ForecastForecast Not yet

Crowley 75%; D favored in 52 of 99 Assembly (+7) and 18 of 33 Senate (+3)

State Navigate (model; executive director Chaz Nuttycombe), State Navigate, nonpartisan 501(c)(3) state-legislature forecaster (site)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“David Crowley is projected to get 51.7% of the vote and has a 75% chance of winning.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 9:00 pm ET.
Caution: Counted first: by geography; Dane and Milwaukee timing drives early totals. The early count is mixed. Later votes lean D.

AZ-AG/AZ-SoS · ForecastForecast Not yet

AZ-AG Leans D (Mayes); AZ-SoS Likely D (Fontes)

Leans/Likely Democratic (paraphrase, not a quote)

Louis Jacobson, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball (byline)

Oct 29, 2026 · Substack

“Arizona: Kris Mayes, D”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 9:00 pm ET.
Caution: Counted first: early mail ballots received before Election Day.

MN-AG/MN-SoS · ForecastForecast Not yet

MN-AG Toss-up (Ellison); MN-SoS Leans D (Simon)

Toss-up / Leans Democratic (paraphrase, not a quote)

Louis Jacobson, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball (byline)

Oct 29, 2026 · Substack

“Minnesota: From Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 9:00 pm ET.

MN-trifecta · ForecastForecast Not yet

Klobuchar 99%; D favored in 80 of 134 House (+13) and 42 of 67 Senate (+8)

State Navigate (model; executive director Chaz Nuttycombe), State Navigate, nonpartisan 501(c)(3) state-legislature forecaster (site)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“Amy Klobuchar is projected to get 56.6% of the vote and has a 99% chance of winning.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 9:00 pm ET.

TX-HouseChamber/TX-SenateChamber · ForecastForecast Not yet

TX House R 79 - D 71; TX Senate 19-12 (R-D)

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Forecast TX-09/TX-23/TX-32/TX-15/TX-28/TX-34/TX-35: R wins TX-09, TX-23, TX-32; D wins TX-15, TX-28, TX-34, TX-35 Forecast
Forecast TX-HouseChamber/TX-SenateChamber: TX House R 79 - D 71; TX Senate 19-12 (R-D) Forecast

Nov 2, 2026 · X

“Texas House: 79 R, 71 D. Texas Senate: 19-12.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 9:00 pm ET.
Caution: Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans D. Later votes lean R, then late Dallas and Harris EDay D.

TX-Sen/TX-Gov/TX-LtGov/TX-AG/TX-Comptroller · ForecastForecast Not yet

TX-Sen D +3; TX-Gov R +2.5; Lt Gov and AG R +3.5; Comptroller R +5

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Forecast TX-RRC: toss-up (Rosenthal D vs French R) “Railroad Commission, toss-up.”
Forecast TX-Sen/TX-Gov/TX-LtGov/TX-AG/TX-Comptroller: TX-Sen D +3; TX-Gov R +2.5; Lt Gov and AG R +3.5; Comptroller R +5 Forecast

Nov 2, 2026 · X

“U.S. Senate, Talarico (D) +3. Governor, Abbott (R) +2.5. Lt. gov. and AG, R +3.5. Comptroller, R +5.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 9:00 pm ET.
Caution: Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans D. Later votes lean R, then late Dallas and Harris EDay D.

TX-statewide · ForecastForecast Not scored

TX total votes ~11.4M; VEP turnout ~53.6%

Michael McDonald, Professor of Political Science, University of Florida (Bluesky bio)

Nov 2, 2026 · Bluesky

“Projecting out, that's 11.4 million votes for a turnout rate of 53.6% among those eligible to vote.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 9:00 pm ET.
Caution: Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans D. Later votes lean R, then late Dallas and Harris EDay D.

WI-AG/WI-SoS · ForecastForecast Not yet

WI-AG Leans D (Kaul); WI-SoS Leans D (open)

Leans Democratic (paraphrase, not a quote)

Louis Jacobson, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball (byline)

Oct 29, 2026 · Substack

“Wisconsin: Josh Kaul, D”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 9:00 pm ET.
Caution: Counted first: by geography; Dane and Milwaukee timing drives early totals. The early count is mixed. Later votes lean D.

10:00 pm ET

Polls close ID, MT, NV, UT · also ND (Central), OR (Mountain)

Key races ID-Sen MT-Sen NV-Gov MT-01 NV-02

AZ-02/NV-02 · BarGreat night

D wins AZ-2 (Nez) or NV-2

“would mark an historic tide”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Fair / floor AZ-Gov/AZ-01: Hobbs comfortable reelection; D flips AZ-1 “the minimum for a good Democratic night”
Great night AZ-06: D (Mendoza) beats Ciscomani “More impressive”
Great night AZ-02/NV-02: D wins AZ-2 (Nez) or NV-2 “would mark an historic tide”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“Democratic wins in two other House districts would mark an historic tide.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 10:00 pm ET.

NV-Gov · BarWarning sign

Lombardo rural margin ≥ ~2022 margin (else likely loses)

“avoid being one-termer”

Jon Ralston, CEO/Editor, The Nevada Independent (Bluesky bio)

Oct 27, 2026 · Bluesky

“I did modeling and gov needs to win rural NV by close to his 2022 margin to avoid being one-termer.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 10:00 pm ET. Slow: mail ballots postmarked by Election Day accepted through Nov 7; ~2 days to 95% in 2024 (NYT); Ralston expects counting and cures to finish ~1 week out. Late-counted mail leans D this year.
Caution: Counted first: early mail and early in-person. The early count leans D. Later votes lean D; EDay in between leans R.

More markers (12)

NV-Gov · BarWarning sign

R EDay ballot edge ≥ ~30,000 needed to save Lombardo

“to have any chance of saving the governor”

Jon Ralston, CEO/Editor, The Nevada Independent (Bluesky bio)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“they are going to need to have tens of thousands of more ballots than the Dems on Tuesday – at least 30,000”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 10:00 pm ET. Slow: mail ballots postmarked by Election Day accepted through Nov 7; ~2 days to 95% in 2024 (NYT); Ralston expects counting and cures to finish ~1 week out. Late-counted mail leans D this year.
Caution: Counted first: early mail and early in-person. The early count leans D. Later votes lean D; EDay in between leans R.

NV-Gov/MT-01 · BarGreat night

Ford (D) beats Lombardo; Forstag (D) wins MT-1

“a stronger Democratic current”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“Aaron Ford over Republican Joe Lombardo in the Nevada governor race (where polls close at 10 p.m.) would likewise mark a stronger Democratic current.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 10:00 pm ET.

NV-02 · BarGood night

Chapman ≥ 12-15% → race up for grabs

“all bets are off”

Jon Ralston, CEO, The Nevada Independent (byline line)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“And if IAP candidate Lynn Chapman gets to 12 percent to 15 percent, all bets are off.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 10:00 pm ET. Slow: mail ballots postmarked by Election Day accepted through Nov 7; ~2 days to 95% in 2024 (NYT); Ralston expects counting and cures to finish ~1 week out. Late-counted mail leans D this year.
Caution: Counted first: early mail and early in-person. The early count leans D. Later votes lean D; EDay in between leans R.

NV-AssemblyChamber · ForecastForecast Not yet

D supermajority, 28-32 seats (of 42)

“Democratic supermajority”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Forecast NV-AssemblyChamber: D supermajority, 28-32 seats (of 42) “Democratic supermajority”
Forecast NV-Gov: Ford 46, Lombardo 45 (Ford wins after day-after mail) Forecast
Forecast NV-01/NV-03/NV-04: D holds: Titus 50-41, Lee 49-44, Horsford 52-42 Forecast
Forecast NV-02: Flippo 46, Benitez-Thompson 44, Chapman 10 Forecast
Forecast NV-SenateChamber: D 13-8 Forecast
Forecast NV-statewide (LG, AG, SoS, Treasurer, Controller): D sweep: Jauregui 48-43, Cannizzaro 50-44, Aguilar 52-39, Mathis-Coleman 48-44, MacDougall 48-46 Forecast

Jon Ralston, CEO, The Nevada Independent (byline line)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“The Assembly will have a Democratic supermajority, with at least 28 seats and as many as 32.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 10:00 pm ET. Slow: mail ballots postmarked by Election Day accepted through Nov 7; ~2 days to 95% in 2024 (NYT); Ralston expects counting and cures to finish ~1 week out. Late-counted mail leans D this year.
Caution: Counted first: early mail and early in-person. The early count leans D. Later votes lean D; EDay in between leans R.

NV-Gov · ForecastForecast Not yet

Ford 46, Lombardo 45 (Ford wins after day-after mail)

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Forecast NV-AssemblyChamber: D supermajority, 28-32 seats (of 42) “Democratic supermajority”
Forecast NV-Gov: Ford 46, Lombardo 45 (Ford wins after day-after mail) Forecast
Forecast NV-01/NV-03/NV-04: D holds: Titus 50-41, Lee 49-44, Horsford 52-42 Forecast
Forecast NV-02: Flippo 46, Benitez-Thompson 44, Chapman 10 Forecast
Forecast NV-SenateChamber: D 13-8 Forecast
Forecast NV-statewide (LG, AG, SoS, Treasurer, Controller): D sweep: Jauregui 48-43, Cannizzaro 50-44, Aguilar 52-39, Mathis-Coleman 48-44, MacDougall 48-46 Forecast

Jon Ralston, CEO, The Nevada Independent (byline line)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“I think Lombardo may well be leading late on election night. Maybe. But the day-after mail is going to put Ford over the top.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 10:00 pm ET. Slow: mail ballots postmarked by Election Day accepted through Nov 7; ~2 days to 95% in 2024 (NYT); Ralston expects counting and cures to finish ~1 week out. Late-counted mail leans D this year.
Caution: Counted first: early mail and early in-person. The early count leans D. Later votes lean D; EDay in between leans R.

NV-trifecta · ForecastForecast Not yet

Lombardo (R) 74%; D favored in 28 of 42 Assembly and 13 of 21 Senate

State Navigate (model; executive director Chaz Nuttycombe), State Navigate, nonpartisan 501(c)(3) state-legislature forecaster (site)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“Joe Lombardo is projected to get 50.9% of the vote and has a 74% chance of winning.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 10:00 pm ET.
Caution: Counted first: early mail and early in-person. The early count leans D. Later votes lean D; EDay in between leans R.

MT-01 · ForecastForecast Not yet

Sam Forstag (D) wins

long shot (paraphrase, not a quote)

Politix hosts, Matt Yglesias and Brian Beutler (speaker not confirmed), Co-hosts, Politix podcast (Yglesias: Slow Boring; Beutler: Off Message) Unattributed

Oct 28, 2026 · Podcast

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 10:00 pm ET. Slow: mostly mail; only 14% by midnight in 2024; 1-2 days to 95% (NYT).
Caution: Counted first: mail ballots.

NV-01/NV-03/NV-04 · ForecastForecast Not yet

D holds: Titus 50-41, Lee 49-44, Horsford 52-42

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Forecast NV-AssemblyChamber: D supermajority, 28-32 seats (of 42) “Democratic supermajority”
Forecast NV-Gov: Ford 46, Lombardo 45 (Ford wins after day-after mail) Forecast
Forecast NV-01/NV-03/NV-04: D holds: Titus 50-41, Lee 49-44, Horsford 52-42 Forecast
Forecast NV-02: Flippo 46, Benitez-Thompson 44, Chapman 10 Forecast
Forecast NV-SenateChamber: D 13-8 Forecast
Forecast NV-statewide (LG, AG, SoS, Treasurer, Controller): D sweep: Jauregui 48-43, Cannizzaro 50-44, Aguilar 52-39, Mathis-Coleman 48-44, MacDougall 48-46 Forecast

Jon Ralston, CEO, The Nevada Independent (byline line)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“The current numbers show the incumbents with double-digit ballot leads. Those races are over.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 10:00 pm ET.
Caution: Counted first: early mail and early in-person. The early count leans D. Later votes lean D; EDay in between leans R.

NV-02 · ForecastForecast Not yet

Flippo 46, Benitez-Thompson 44, Chapman 10

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Forecast NV-AssemblyChamber: D supermajority, 28-32 seats (of 42) “Democratic supermajority”
Forecast NV-Gov: Ford 46, Lombardo 45 (Ford wins after day-after mail) Forecast
Forecast NV-01/NV-03/NV-04: D holds: Titus 50-41, Lee 49-44, Horsford 52-42 Forecast
Forecast NV-02: Flippo 46, Benitez-Thompson 44, Chapman 10 Forecast
Forecast NV-SenateChamber: D 13-8 Forecast
Forecast NV-statewide (LG, AG, SoS, Treasurer, Controller): D sweep: Jauregui 48-43, Cannizzaro 50-44, Aguilar 52-39, Mathis-Coleman 48-44, MacDougall 48-46 Forecast

Jon Ralston, CEO, The Nevada Independent (byline line)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“Flippo, 46 percent, TBT, 44 percent; Chapman, 10 percent.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 10:00 pm ET. Slow: mail ballots postmarked by Election Day accepted through Nov 7; ~2 days to 95% in 2024 (NYT); Ralston expects counting and cures to finish ~1 week out. Late-counted mail leans D this year.
Caution: Counted first: early mail and early in-person. The early count leans D. Later votes lean D; EDay in between leans R.

NV-AG/NV-SoS · ForecastForecast Not yet

NV-AG Leans D (open); NV-SoS Likely D (Aguilar)

Leans/Likely Democratic (paraphrase, not a quote)

Louis Jacobson, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball (byline)

Oct 29, 2026 · Substack

“Nevada: Open seat (Aaron Ford, D, is running for governor)”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 10:00 pm ET.
Caution: Counted first: early mail and early in-person. The early count leans D. Later votes lean D; EDay in between leans R.

NV-SenateChamber · ForecastForecast Not yet

D 13-8

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Forecast NV-AssemblyChamber: D supermajority, 28-32 seats (of 42) “Democratic supermajority”
Forecast NV-Gov: Ford 46, Lombardo 45 (Ford wins after day-after mail) Forecast
Forecast NV-01/NV-03/NV-04: D holds: Titus 50-41, Lee 49-44, Horsford 52-42 Forecast
Forecast NV-02: Flippo 46, Benitez-Thompson 44, Chapman 10 Forecast
Forecast NV-SenateChamber: D 13-8 Forecast
Forecast NV-statewide (LG, AG, SoS, Treasurer, Controller): D sweep: Jauregui 48-43, Cannizzaro 50-44, Aguilar 52-39, Mathis-Coleman 48-44, MacDougall 48-46 Forecast

Jon Ralston, CEO, The Nevada Independent (byline line)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“The state Senate will be the same — 13-8, Dems.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 10:00 pm ET. Slow: mail ballots postmarked by Election Day accepted through Nov 7; ~2 days to 95% in 2024 (NYT); Ralston expects counting and cures to finish ~1 week out. Late-counted mail leans D this year.
Caution: Counted first: early mail and early in-person. The early count leans D. Later votes lean D; EDay in between leans R.

NV-statewide (LG, AG, SoS, Treasurer, Controller) · ForecastForecast Not yet

D sweep: Jauregui 48-43, Cannizzaro 50-44, Aguilar 52-39, Mathis-Coleman 48-44, MacDougall 48-46

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Forecast NV-AssemblyChamber: D supermajority, 28-32 seats (of 42) “Democratic supermajority”
Forecast NV-Gov: Ford 46, Lombardo 45 (Ford wins after day-after mail) Forecast
Forecast NV-01/NV-03/NV-04: D holds: Titus 50-41, Lee 49-44, Horsford 52-42 Forecast
Forecast NV-02: Flippo 46, Benitez-Thompson 44, Chapman 10 Forecast
Forecast NV-SenateChamber: D 13-8 Forecast
Forecast NV-statewide (LG, AG, SoS, Treasurer, Controller): D sweep: Jauregui 48-43, Cannizzaro 50-44, Aguilar 52-39, Mathis-Coleman 48-44, MacDougall 48-46 Forecast

Jon Ralston, CEO, The Nevada Independent (byline line)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“Lombardo may drown in the blue wave, but the other Republican statewide candidates are already submerged”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 10:00 pm ET.
Caution: Counted first: early mail and early in-person. The early count leans D. Later votes lean D; EDay in between leans R.

11:00 pm ET

Polls close CA, OR, WA · also ID (Pacific), ND (Mountain)

Key races OR-Sen OR-Gov CA-22

OR-Gov · BarGreat night

Kotek holds

“send a stronger signal”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“it will send a stronger signal that the backlash against Trump is virtually insurmountable for blue state Republicans.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 11:00 pm ET. Slow: all-mail; more than a week to 95%; postmarked ballots have 7 days (NYT).
Caution: Counted first: mail ballots.

CA-22 · ForecastForecast Not yet

Valadao (R) loses by ~9 (D margin ~ +9)

“i personally expect him to lose by ~9”

Lakshya Jain, Polling and political data, The Argument; co-founder, Split Ticket (X bio)

Oct 30, 2026 · X

“i personally expect him to lose by ~9. (fwiw it's up to D+5 after the USC poll today)”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 11:00 pm ET. Very slow: mostly mail, counties have weeks; the final House call in 2024 came 29 days later (NYT).
Caution: Counted first: mail ballots received before Election Day.

More markers (1)

CA-22/WA-03 · BarGood night

Villegas (D) ousts Valadao; Gluesenkamp Perez holds WA-3

“a good result for Democrats”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“it will be a good result for Democrats if progressive Randy Villegas finally ousts Republican David Valadao”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 11:00 pm ET. Very slow: mostly mail, counties have weeks; the final House call in 2024 came 29 days later (NYT).
Caution: Counted first: mail ballots received before Election Day.

12:00 am ET

Polls close AK, HI

Key races AK-Sen AK-Gov

AK-Sen · BarGreat night

Peltola wins

“More significant”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Good night AK-Gov: Kreiss-Tomkins (D) wins “Democrats on a solid path in the state”
Great night AK-Sen: Peltola wins “More significant”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“More significant would be a victory in the Alaska Senate race for Democrat Mary Peltola”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 12:00 am ET. Very slow: first results ~1 am ET; ~75% reported on election night in 2024; rest 7-15 days later. RCV tabulation if no one tops 50% (NYT: Nov 18; Downballot: 1-2 weeks). Not known on the night.
Caution: Counted first: mixed. Ranked-choice race: only first choices are known on the night.

AK-Sen · ForecastForecast Not yet

Peltola underperforms Split Ticket model margin

Lakshya Jain, The Argument; co-founder, Split Ticket (byline)

Nov 2, 2026 · Substack

“my guess would be that Peltola slightly underperforms the model’s margins.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 12:00 am ET. Very slow: first results ~1 am ET; ~75% reported on election night in 2024; rest 7-15 days later. RCV tabulation if no one tops 50% (NYT: Nov 18; Downballot: 1-2 weeks). Not known on the night.
Caution: Counted first: mixed. Ranked-choice race: only first choices are known on the night.

More markers (3)

AK-Gov · BarGood night

Kreiss-Tomkins (D) wins

“Democrats on a solid path in the state”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

Good night AK-Gov: Kreiss-Tomkins (D) wins “Democrats on a solid path in the state”
Great night AK-Sen: Peltola wins “More significant”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“a win would show Democrats on a solid path in the state.”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 12:00 am ET. Very slow: first results ~1 am ET; ~75% reported on election night in 2024; rest 7-15 days later. RCV tabulation if no one tops 50% (NYT: Nov 18; Downballot: 1-2 weeks). Not known on the night.
Caution: Counted first: mixed. Ranked-choice race: only first choices are known on the night.

AK-Sen · ForecastForecast Not yet

D margin ~ +3 to +4 (Peltola)

Oct 31, 2026 · X

“probably good enough for Peltola +3 or 4 if the story doesn’t change anything”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 12:00 am ET. Very slow: first results ~1 am ET; ~75% reported on election night in 2024; rest 7-15 days later. RCV tabulation if no one tops 50% (NYT: Nov 18; Downballot: 1-2 weeks). Not known on the night.
Caution: Counted first: mixed. Ranked-choice race: only first choices are known on the night.

AK-Gov · ForecastForecast Not yet

D wins

“on track to win the governor’s race”

Brian Beutler, Off Message; Politix co-host (Bluesky bio)

Oct 30, 2026 · Bluesky

“They’re on track to win the governor’s race anyhow”

Check it: State results · AP results
Readable: Polls close 12:00 am ET. Very slow: first results ~1 am ET; ~75% reported on election night in 2024; rest 7-15 days later. RCV tabulation if no one tops 50% (NYT: Nov 18; Downballot: 1-2 weeks). Not known on the night.
Caution: Counted first: mixed. Ranked-choice race: only first choices are known on the night.

1:00 am ET

Polls close No full states · also AK (Hawaii-Aleutian)

Alaska’s first results usually arrive around now; its bars are under 12:00 am.

Key races —

No analyst bar is pinned to this hour yet.

State races

The 14 target states, plus North Carolina’s Supreme Court seat: the chambers, the statewide offices and court seats on the ballot, the followed legislators who face an opponent, and the bars set for them. Outlets rarely call state chambers; control may not be known on the night.

Michigan

Chamber	Seats up	Majority	Now	Tonight
State Senate	38 of 38	20	20 D - 18 R - 0	No seats entered yet
State House	110 of 110	56	52 D - 58 R - 0	No seats entered yet

Statewide offices

Governor: D Jocelyn Benson · R John James
Lieutenant Governor (joint ticket with Governor): D Winnie Brinks · R Jay DeBoyer
Secretary of State: D Garlin Gilchrist II · R Anthony Forlini
Attorney General: D Eli Savit · R Doug Lloyd
Supreme Court (2 seats, nonpartisan ballot, party-nominated): D Megan Cavanagh, Noah Hood · R Casandra Morse-Bills, Michael D. Warren Jr.
State Board of Education (2 seats): D Judith Pritchett, Tiffany Tilley · R Terence Collins, Bree Moeggenberg
University of Michigan Board of Regents (2 seats): D Paul Brown, Amir Makled · R Lena Epstein, Michael Schostak
Michigan State University Board of Trustees (2 seats): D Brianna Scott, Kelly Tebay · R Julie Maday, Roger Victory
Wayne State University Board of Governors (2 seats): D Shereef Akeel, Richard Mack · R Andy Anuzis, Christa Murphy
State Treasurer: NOT ON BALLOT

Markers (5)

MI-Gov: Benson wins comfortably · Ronald Brownstein
MI-Gov: Benson 54.3%, 94% · State Navigate
MI-HouseChamber: D favored in 62 of 110 (+10) · State Navigate
MI-SenateChamber: D favored in 23 of 38 (+3) · State Navigate
MI-SoS/MI-AG: MI-SoS Leans D; MI-AG Toss-up · Louis Jacobson

Michigan results page

Pennsylvania

Chamber	Seats up	Majority	Now	Tonight
State Senate	25 of 50	26	23 D - 27 R - 0	No seats entered yet
State House	203 of 203	102	103 D - 100 R - 0	No seats entered yet

Statewide offices

Governor: D Josh Shapiro · R Stacy Garrity
Lieutenant Governor (joint ticket with Governor): D Austin Davis · R Jason Richey
State Treasurer: NOT ON BALLOT
Supreme Court: NOT ON BALLOT (no seats or retention votes in 2026)

Markers (3)

PA-Gov: Shapiro 61.1%, >99% · State Navigate
PA-HouseChamber: D favored in 112 of 203 (+9) · State Navigate
PA-SenateChamber: D favored in 26 of 50 (+3) · State Navigate

Pennsylvania results page

Georgia

Chamber	Seats up	Majority	Now	Tonight
State Senate	56 of 56	29	22 D - 33 R - 0 (1 vacancy)	No seats entered yet
State House	180 of 180	91	81 D - 99 R - 0	No seats entered yet

Statewide offices

Governor: D Keisha Lance Bottoms · R Rick Jackson
Lieutenant Governor: D Josh McLaurin · R Greg Dolezal
Secretary of State: D Penny Brown Reynolds · R Tim Fleming
Attorney General: D Tanya Miller · R Brian Strickland
Commissioner of Agriculture: D Katherine Juhan-Arnold · R Tyler Harper
Insurance and Safety Fire Commissioner: D Keisha Sean Waites · R John King
Commissioner of Labor: D Nikki Porcher · R Bárbara Rivera Holmes
State School Superintendent: D Lydia Powell · R Richard Woods
Public Service Commission District 3 (statewide vote): D Peter Hubbard · R Fitz Johnson
Public Service Commission District 5 (statewide vote): D Shelia Edwards · R Josh Tolbert
State Treasurer: NOT ON BALLOT
Supreme Court: NOT ON BALLOT (decided May 19 2026)

Markers (10)

GA-AG/GA-SoS: GA-AG and GA-SoS Toss-up · Louis Jacobson
GA-Gov: Bottoms beats Jackson · Ronald Brownstein
GA-Gov: Bottoms 50.3%, 54% · State Navigate
GA-Gov/NV-Gov: GA-Gov and NV-Gov Leans D · Kyle Kondik
GA-Gov/WI-Gov/MI-Gov/AK-Gov/OH-Gov: GA, WI, AK, OH Gov Tilt D; MI Gov Lean D · Jacob Rubashkin
GA-HouseChamber: D net gain ≥ 10 flips chamber · Greg Bluestein
GA-HouseChamber: D favored in 87 of 180 (+6); R 93 · State Navigate
GA-PSC: D flips GA Public Service Commission · Daniel Nichanian
GA-PSC: D wins PSC seat(s) on ballot → flips commission · Daniel Nichanian
GA-SenateChamber: D favored in 24 of 56 (+1); R 32 · State Navigate

Georgia results page

Indiana

Chamber	Seats up	Majority	Now	Tonight
State Senate	25 of 50	26	10 D - 40 R - 0	No seats entered yet
State House	100 of 100	51	30 D - 70 R - 0	No seats entered yet

Statewide offices

Governor: NOT ON BALLOT (elected in presidential years)
Secretary of State: D Beau Bayh · R Max Engling
Treasurer of State: D Coumba Kebe · R Daniel Elliott
Comptroller of State (formerly Auditor of State): D Jessica Bailey · R Elise Nieshalla

Markers (4)

IN-HouseChamber: D flips ≥ 4 → breaks R supermajority (70-30 now) · Tom Davies
IN-HouseChamber: D favored in 33 of 100 (+3); R 67 · State Navigate
IN-SenateChamber: D favored in 13 of 50 (+3); R 37 · State Navigate
IN-SoS: Leans D (Bayh) · Louis Jacobson

Indiana results page

Iowa

Chamber	Seats up	Majority	Now	Tonight
State House	100 of 100	51	33 D - 66 R - 1 vacant	No seats entered yet
State Senate	25 of 50	26	17 D - 32 R - 1 vacant	No seats entered yet

Statewide offices

Governor: D Rob Sand · R Zach Lahn
Treasurer of State: D John Norwood · R Roby Smith

Followed legislators

Iowa Senate District 39: Liz Bennett (D) v Edward Bernie Hayes (R)
Liz Bennett: Ranking Member, Technology; 1st term
Iowa Senate District 49: Cindy Winckler (D) v Cynthia Mensendick (R)
Cindy Winckler: Senate Assistant Minority Leader; 1st term; Ranking member, Senate State Government (committee table)

Markers (1)

IA-01/IA-03/IA-Gov: D beats Miller-Meeks and Nunn; Sand wins governor · Ronald Brownstein

Iowa results page

Wisconsin

Chamber	Seats up	Majority	Now	Tonight
State Senate	17 of 33	17	15 D - 18 R - 0	No seats entered yet
State Assembly	99 of 99	50	45 D - 54 R - 0	No seats entered yet

Statewide offices

Governor: D David Crowley · R Tom Tiffany
State Treasurer: D Yee Leng Xiong · R John Leiber

Markers (4)

WI-01/WI-Gov: Berman (D) beats Steil; Crowley wins governor · Ronald Brownstein
WI-AssemblyChamber/WI-SenateChamber: D flips WI legislature · Jeff Singer
WI-trifecta: Crowley 75%; D favored in 52 of 99 Assembly (+7) and 18 of 33 Senate (+3) · State Navigate
governors: WI NV GA OH AK KS VT NH MI TX AZ FL: D: WI, NV, GA, OH, AK, MI, AZ governor; R: KS, VT, NH, TX, FL governor · Lakshya Jain

Wisconsin results page

Kansas

Chamber	Seats up	Majority	Now	Tonight
State House	125 of 125	63	37 D - 87 R - 1 vacant	No seats entered yet
State Senate: NOT ON BALLOT (next election 2028)	0 of 40	21	9 D - 31 R - 0	Not on the ballot

Statewide offices

Governor: D Cindy Holscher · R Ty Masterson
State Treasurer: D Juan Luengo · R Steven C. Johnson
Supreme Court (2 seats, retention votes): Justices Eric Rosen (appointed 2005) and Larkin Walsh (appointed 2025), both by Democratic governors (yes/no retention votes)

Kansas results page

Arizona

Chamber	Seats up	Majority	Now	Tonight
State Senate	30 of 30	16	13 D - 17 R - 0	No seats entered yet
State House	60 of 60	31	27 D - 33 R - 0	No seats entered yet

Statewide offices

Governor: D Katie Hobbs · R Andy Biggs
State Treasurer: D Nick Mansour · R Elijah Norton
Supreme Court (1 seat, retention vote): Justice John Lopez IV (yes/no retention vote; appointed by Gov. Ducey, 2016)

Markers (4)

AZ-Gov: Hobbs (D) wins (Crystal Ball: Likely D) · Kyle Kondik
AZ-Gov/AZ-01: Hobbs comfortable reelection; D flips AZ-1 · Ronald Brownstein
AZ-Gov/AZ-legislature: Hobbs wins; D probably flips legislature (AZ trifecta) · Matt Yglesias
AZ-trifecta: Hobbs 93%; D favored in 34 of 60 House (+7) and 17 of 30 Senate (+4) · State Navigate

Arizona results page

Alaska

Chamber	Seats up	Majority	Now	Tonight
State House	40 of 40	21	14 D - 21 R - 4 nonpartisan - 1 other	No seats entered yet
State Senate	10 of 20	11	9 D - 11 R - 0	No seats entered yet

Statewide offices

Governor: D Jonathan S. "JKT" Kreiss-Tomkins · R Dave Bronson, Treg Taylor, Bernadette M. Wilson
Treasurer: NOT ON BALLOT (no elected treasurer; Commissioner of Revenue appointed by the governor)
Supreme Court (1 seat, retention vote): Justice Jude Pate (yes/no retention vote)

Markers (2)

AK-Gov: D wins · Brian Beutler
AK-Gov: Kreiss-Tomkins (D) wins · Ronald Brownstein

Alaska results page

Massachusetts

Chamber	Seats up	Majority	Now	Tonight
State House	160 of 160	81	132 D - 25 R - 1 other - 2 vacant	No seats entered yet
State Senate	40 of 40	21	35 D - 5 R - 0	No seats entered yet

Statewide offices

Governor: D Maura Healey · R Michael Minogue
Treasurer and Receiver-General: D Deborah B. Goldberg · R Elizabeth Dionne

Followed legislators

Massachusetts House, 35th Middlesex District: Paul J. Donato (D) v James C. Seibel (R)
Paul Donato: House Second Assistant Majority Leader; 13th term

Massachusetts results page

Tennessee

Chamber	Seats up	Majority	Now	Tonight
State House	99 of 99	50	23 D - 75 R - 1 vacant	No seats entered yet
State Senate	17 of 33	17	6 D - 27 R - 0	No seats entered yet

Statewide offices

Governor: D Jerri Green · R Marsha Blackburn
State Treasurer: NOT ON BALLOT (elected by the General Assembly)

Tennessee results page

West Virginia

Chamber	Seats up	Majority	Now	Tonight
House of Delegates	100 of 100	51	9 D - 91 R - 0	No seats entered yet
State Senate	17 of 34	18	2 D - 32 R - 0	No seats entered yet

Statewide offices

Governor: NOT ON BALLOT (elected in presidential years)
State Treasurer: NOT ON BALLOT (elected in presidential years)

West Virginia results page

Arkansas

Chamber	Seats up	Majority	Now	Tonight
State House	100 of 100	51	20 D - 79 R - 1 vacant	No seats entered yet
State Senate	17 of 35	18	6 D - 27 R - 2 vacant	No seats entered yet

Statewide offices

Governor: D Fredrick Love · R Sarah Huckabee Sanders
State Treasurer: R John Thurston

Arkansas results page

Alabama

Chamber	Seats up	Majority	Now	Tonight
State House	105 of 105	53	29 D - 76 R - 0	No seats entered yet
State Senate	35 of 35	18	8 D - 27 R - 0	No seats entered yet

Statewide offices

Governor: D Doug Jones · R Tommy Tuberville
State Treasurer: D Rosilyn Houston · R Young Boozer
Supreme Court (2 seats, partisan): D AshLeigh Meyer Dunham · R Greg Shaw, Brad Mendheim

Alabama results page

North Carolina (Supreme Court seat only)

Statewide offices

Supreme Court Associate Justice Seat 01 (partisan): D Anita Earls · R Sarah Stevens

North Carolina results page

Race list

Every race on the board, by poll-closing time, with links to the state, AP and each outlet.

Outlet links go to each outlet’s race page where its address pattern is known (AP, Fox, DDHQ Senate), otherwise to its 2026 results hub. NYT shows AP’s calls.

KY-Sen 6:00 pm ET

US Senate

D Charles Booker · R Andy Barr

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
IN-05 6:00 pm ET

US House markers

D J.D. Ford · R Victoria Spartz

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
KY-06 6:00 pm ET

US House markers

D Zach Dembo · R Ralph Alvarado

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
US-House6:00 pm ET

US House control markers

D Democrats · R Republicans

Results links
AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
IN-Comptroller 6:00 pm ET

Comptroller of State (formerly Auditor of State)

D Jessica Bailey · R Elise Nieshalla

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
IN-HouseChamber6:00 pm ET

State House markers

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
IN-SenateChamber6:00 pm ET

State Senate markers

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
IN-SoS 6:00 pm ET

Secretary of State markers

D Beau Bayh · R Max Engling

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
IN-Treasurer 6:00 pm ET

Treasurer of State

D Coumba Kebe · R Daniel Elliott

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
GA-Sen 7:00 pm ET

US Senate markers

D Jon Ossoff · R Mike Collins

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
SC-Sen 7:00 pm ET

US Senate markers

D Annie Andrews · R Darline Graham

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
US-Senate7:00 pm ET

US Senate control markers

D Democratic caucus · R Republican conference

Results links
AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
VA-Sen 7:00 pm ET

US Senate

D Mark Warner · R Bert Mizusawa

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
GA-Gov 7:00 pm ET

Governor markers

D Keisha Lance Bottoms · R Rick Jackson

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
VT-Gov 7:00 pm ET

Governor markers

D Amanda Janoo · R Phil Scott

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
FL-09 7:00 pm ET

US House

D Darren Soto · R Dan Green

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
FL-14 7:00 pm ET

US House markers

D Kathy Castor · R Mike Beltran

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
FL-22 7:00 pm ET

US House markers

D Pia Dandiya · R Casey Askar

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
FL-25 7:00 pm ET

US House markers

D Jared Moskowitz · R Scott Singer

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
FL-27 7:00 pm ET

US House markers

D Eliott Rodriguez · R Maria Elvira Salazar

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
SC-01 7:00 pm ET

US House markers

D Nancy Lacore · R Jenny Costa Honeycutt

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
VA-01 7:00 pm ET

US House markers

D Shannon Taylor · R Rob Wittman

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
VA-02 7:00 pm ET

US House markers

D Elaine Luria · R Jen Kiggans

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
VA-05 7:00 pm ET

US House markers

D Tom Perriello · R John McGuire

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
GA-AG 7:00 pm ET

Attorney General markers

D Tanya Miller · R Brian Strickland

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
GA-AgCommissioner 7:00 pm ET

Commissioner of Agriculture

D Katherine Juhan-Arnold · R Tyler Harper

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
GA-HouseChamber7:00 pm ET

State House markers

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
GA-InsCommissioner 7:00 pm ET

Insurance and Safety Fire Commissioner

D Keisha Sean Waites · R John King

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
GA-LaborCommissioner 7:00 pm ET

Commissioner of Labor

D Nikki Porcher · R Bárbara Rivera Holmes

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
GA-LtGov 7:00 pm ET

Lieutenant Governor

D Josh McLaurin · R Greg Dolezal

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
GA-PSC-3 7:00 pm ET

Public Service Commission District 3 (statewide vote) markers

D Peter Hubbard · R Fitz Johnson

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
GA-PSC-5 7:00 pm ET

Public Service Commission District 5 (statewide vote) markers

D Shelia Edwards · R Josh Tolbert

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
GA-SchoolSupt 7:00 pm ET

State School Superintendent

D Lydia Powell · R Richard Woods

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
GA-SenateChamber7:00 pm ET

State Senate markers

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
GA-SoS 7:00 pm ET

Secretary of State markers

D Penny Brown Reynolds · R Tim Fleming

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
NC-Sen 7:30 pm ET

US Senate markers

D Roy Cooper · R Michael Whatley

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
OH-Sen 7:30 pm ET

US Senate (special) markers

D Sherrod Brown · R Jon Husted

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
WV-Sen 7:30 pm ET

US Senate

D Rachel Fetty Anderson · R Shelley Moore Capito

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
OH-Gov 7:30 pm ET

Governor markers

D Amy Acton · R Vivek Ramaswamy

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
NC-01 7:30 pm ET

US House markers

D Don Davis · R Laurie Buckhout

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
NC-11 7:30 pm ET

US House markers

D Jamie Ager · R Jennifer Capps Balkcom

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
OH-07 7:30 pm ET

US House markers

D Brian Poindexter · R Max Miller

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
NC-SupremeCourt 7:30 pm ET

Supreme Court Associate Justice Seat 01 (partisan)

D Anita Earls · R Sarah Stevens

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
WV-HouseChamber7:30 pm ET

House of Delegates

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
WV-SenateChamber7:30 pm ET

State Senate

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
AL-Sen 8:00 pm ET

US Senate

D Everett Wess · R Barry Moore

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
DE-Sen 8:00 pm ET

US Senate

D Chris Coons · R Michael Katz

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
FL-Sen 8:00 pm ET

US Senate (special) markers

D Angie Nixon · R Ashley B. Moody

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
IL-Sen 8:00 pm ET

US Senate

D Juliana Stratton · R Don Tracy

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
KS-Sen 8:00 pm ET

US Senate markers

D Adam Hamilton · R Roger Marshall

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
MA-Sen 8:00 pm ET

US Senate

D Edward J. Markey · R John Deaton

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
ME-Sen 8:00 pm ET

US Senate markers

D Troy D. Jackson · R Susan Collins

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
MI-Sen 8:00 pm ET

US Senate markers

D Abdul El-Sayed · R Mike Rogers

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
MS-Sen 8:00 pm ET

US Senate markers

D Scott Colom · R Cindy Hyde-Smith

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
NH-Sen 8:00 pm ET

US Senate markers

D Chris Pappas · R John Sununu

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
NJ-Sen 8:00 pm ET

US Senate

D Cory Booker · R Justin Murphy

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
OK-Sen 8:00 pm ET

US Senate

D N'Kiyla Thomas · R Kevin Hern

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
RI-Sen 8:00 pm ET

US Senate

D Jack Reed · R Raymond McKay

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
SD-Sen 8:00 pm ET

US Senate markers

R Mike Rounds · I Brian Bengs

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
TN-Sen 8:00 pm ET

US Senate

D Marquita Bradshaw · R Bill Hagerty

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
TX-Sen 8:00 pm ET

US Senate markers

D James Talarico · R Ken Paxton

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
AL-Gov 8:00 pm ET

Governor

D Doug Jones · R Tommy Tuberville

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
FL-Gov 8:00 pm ET

Governor markers

D David Jolly · R Byron Donalds

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
KS-Gov 8:00 pm ET

Governor markers

D Cindy Holscher · R Ty Masterson

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
MA-Gov 8:00 pm ET

Governor

D Maura Healey · R Michael Minogue

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
ME-Gov 8:00 pm ET

Governor markers

D Hannah Pingree · R Bobby Charles

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
MI-Gov 8:00 pm ET

Governor markers

D Jocelyn Benson · R John James

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
NH-Gov 8:00 pm ET

Governor markers

D Cinde Warmington · R Kelly Ayotte

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
PA-Gov 8:00 pm ET

Governor markers

D Josh Shapiro · R Stacy Garrity

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
TN-Gov 8:00 pm ET

Governor

D Jerri Green · R Marsha Blackburn

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
TX-Gov 8:00 pm ET

Governor markers

D Gina Hinojosa · R Greg Abbott

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
AL-02 8:00 pm ET

US House

D Shomari Figures · R Rhett Marques

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
ME-02 8:00 pm ET

US House markers

D Matt Dunlap · R Paul LePage

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
MI-04 8:00 pm ET

US House markers

D Sean McCann · R Bill Huizenga

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
MI-07 8:00 pm ET

US House markers

D Will Lawrence · R Tom Barrett

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
NJ-07 8:00 pm ET

US House markers

D Rebecca Bennett · R Tom Kean

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
PA-01 8:00 pm ET

US House markers

D Bob Harvie · R Brian Fitzpatrick

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
PA-07 8:00 pm ET

US House markers

D Bob Brooks · R Ryan Mackenzie

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
PA-08 8:00 pm ET

US House markers

D Paige Cognetti · R Rob Bresnahan

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
PA-10 8:00 pm ET

US House markers

D Janelle Stelson · R Scott Perry

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
TN-09 8:00 pm ET

US House

D Justin Pearson · R Brent Taylor

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
TX-15 8:00 pm ET

US House markers

D Bobby Pulido · R Monica De La Cruz

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
TX-23 8:00 pm ET

US House markers

D Katy Padilla Stout · R Brandon Herrera

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
TX-28 8:00 pm ET

US House markers

D Henry Cuellar · R Tano Tijerina

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
TX-34 8:00 pm ET

US House markers

D Vicente Gonzalez · R Eric Flores

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
TX-35 8:00 pm ET

US House markers

D Johnny Garcia · R Carlos De La Cruz

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
AL-HouseChamber8:00 pm ET

State House

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
AL-SenateChamber8:00 pm ET

State Senate

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
AL-SupremeCourt 8:00 pm ET

Supreme Court (2 seats, partisan)

D AshLeigh Meyer Dunham · R Greg Shaw

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
AL-Treasurer 8:00 pm ET

State Treasurer

D Rosilyn Houston · R Young Boozer

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
KS-HouseChamber8:00 pm ET

State House

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
KS-SupremeCourt 8:00 pm ET

Supreme Court (2 seats, retention votes)

I Justices Eric Rosen

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
KS-Treasurer 8:00 pm ET

State Treasurer

D Juan Luengo · R Steven C. Johnson

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
MA-HD-35thMiddlesex 8:00 pm ET

Massachusetts House, 35th Middlesex District

D Paul J. Donato · R James C. Seibel

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
MA-HouseChamber8:00 pm ET

State House

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
MA-SD-MiddlesexSuffolk 8:00 pm ET

Massachusetts Senate, Middlesex and Suffolk District

D Sal N. DiDomenico

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
MA-SenateChamber8:00 pm ET

State Senate

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
MA-Treasurer 8:00 pm ET

Treasurer and Receiver-General

D Deborah B. Goldberg · R Elizabeth Dionne

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
MI-AG 8:00 pm ET

Attorney General markers

D Eli Savit · R Doug Lloyd

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
MI-BoardOfEducation 8:00 pm ET

State Board of Education (2 seats)

D Judith Pritchett; Tiffany Tilley · R Terence Collins; Bree Moeggenberg

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
MI-HouseChamber8:00 pm ET

State House markers

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
MI-LtGov 8:00 pm ET

Lieutenant Governor (joint ticket with Governor)

D Winnie Brinks · R Jay DeBoyer

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
MI-MSUTrustees 8:00 pm ET

Michigan State University Board of Trustees (2 seats)

D Brianna Scott; Kelly Tebay · R Julie Maday; Roger Victory

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
MI-SenateChamber8:00 pm ET

State Senate markers

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
MI-SoS 8:00 pm ET

Secretary of State markers

D Garlin Gilchrist II · R Anthony Forlini

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
MI-SupremeCourt 8:00 pm ET

Supreme Court (2 seats, nonpartisan ballot, party-nominated)

D Megan Cavanagh · R Casandra Morse-Bills; Michael D. Warren Jr.

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
MI-UMRegents 8:00 pm ET

University of Michigan Board of Regents (2 seats)

D Paul Brown · R Lena Epstein; Michael Schostak

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
MI-WSUGovernors 8:00 pm ET

Wayne State University Board of Governors (2 seats)

D Shereef Akeel; Richard Mack · R Andy Anuzis; Christa Murphy

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
PA-HouseChamber8:00 pm ET

State House markers

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
PA-LtGov 8:00 pm ET

Lieutenant Governor (joint ticket with Governor)

D Austin Davis · R Jason Richey

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
PA-SenateChamber 8:00 pm ET

State Senate markers

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
TN-HouseChamber8:00 pm ET

State House

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
TN-SenateChamber8:00 pm ET

State Senate

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
TX-RRC 8:00 pm ET

Railroad Commissioner (at-large seat held by Jim Wright) markers

D Jon Rosenthal · R Bo French

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
AR-Sen 8:30 pm ET

US Senate

D Hallie Shoffner · R Tom Cotton

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
AR-Gov 8:30 pm ET

Governor

D Fredrick Love · R Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
AR-HouseChamber8:30 pm ET

State House

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
AR-SenateChamber8:30 pm ET

State Senate

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
AR-Treasurer 8:30 pm ET

State Treasurer

R John Thurston

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
CO-Sen 9:00 pm ET

US Senate

D John Hickenlooper · R Mark Baisley

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
IA-Sen 9:00 pm ET

US Senate markers

D Josh Turek · R Ashley Hinson

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
LA-Sen 9:00 pm ET

US Senate markers

D Jamie Davis · R Julia Letlow

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
MN-Sen 9:00 pm ET

US Senate markers

D Peggy Flanagan · R Michele Tafoya

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
NE-Sen 9:00 pm ET

US Senate markers

R Pete Ricketts · I Dan Osborn

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
NM-Sen 9:00 pm ET

US Senate

D Ben Ray Luján · R Larry E. Marker

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
WY-Sen 9:00 pm ET

US Senate

D James Byrd · R Harriet Hageman

Results links
AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
AZ-Gov 9:00 pm ET

Governor markers

D Katie Hobbs · R Andy Biggs

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
IA-Gov 9:00 pm ET

Governor markers

D Rob Sand · R Zach Lahn

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
WI-Gov 9:00 pm ET

Governor markers

D David Crowley · R Tom Tiffany

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
AZ-01 9:00 pm ET

US House markers

D Amish Shah · R Jay Feely

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
AZ-02 9:00 pm ET

US House markers

D Jonathan Nez · R Eli Crane

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
AZ-06 9:00 pm ET

US House markers

D JoAnna Mendoza · R Juan Ciscomani

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
CO-05 9:00 pm ET

US House markers

D Jessica Killin · R Jeff Crank

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
CO-08 9:00 pm ET

US House markers

D Manny Rutinel · R Gabe Evans

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
IA-01 9:00 pm ET

US House markers

D Christina Bohannan · R Mariannette Miller-Meeks

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
IA-03 9:00 pm ET

US House markers

D Sarah Trone Garriott · R Zach Nunn

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
NE-02 9:00 pm ET

US House

D Denise Powell · R Brinker Harding

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
NY-17 9:00 pm ET

US House markers

D Cait Conley · R Mike Lawler

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
NY-21 9:00 pm ET

US House markers

D Blake Gendebien · R Anthony Constantino

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
WI-03 9:00 pm ET

US House markers

D Rebecca Cooke · R Derrick Van Orden

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
AZ-HouseChamber9:00 pm ET

State House markers

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
AZ-SenateChamber9:00 pm ET

State Senate markers

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
AZ-SupremeCourt 9:00 pm ET

Supreme Court (1 seat, retention vote)

I Justice John Lopez IV

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
AZ-Treasurer 9:00 pm ET

State Treasurer

D Nick Mansour · R Elijah Norton

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
IA-HD-29 9:00 pm ET

Iowa House District 29

D Brian Meyer

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
IA-HD-44 9:00 pm ET

Iowa House District 44

D Larry McBurney

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
IA-HD-49 9:00 pm ET

Iowa House District 49

D Beth Wessel-Kroeschell

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
IA-HD-85 9:00 pm ET

Iowa House District 85

D Amy Nielsen

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
IA-HD-86 9:00 pm ET

Iowa House District 86

D Dave Jacoby

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
IA-HouseChamber9:00 pm ET

State House

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
IA-SD-39 9:00 pm ET

Iowa Senate District 39

D Liz Bennett · R Edward Bernie Hayes

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
IA-SD-49 9:00 pm ET

Iowa Senate District 49

D Cindy Winckler · R Cynthia Mensendick

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
IA-SenateChamber9:00 pm ET

State Senate

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
IA-Treasurer 9:00 pm ET

Treasurer of State

D John Norwood · R Roby Smith

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
WI-AssemblyChamber9:00 pm ET

State Assembly markers

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
WI-SenateChamber9:00 pm ET

State Senate markers

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
WI-Treasurer 9:00 pm ET

State Treasurer

D Yee Leng Xiong · R John Leiber

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
ID-Sen 10:00 pm ET

US Senate

R Jim Risch · I Todd Achilles

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
MT-Sen 10:00 pm ET

US Senate

D Alani Bankhead · R Kurt Alme · I Seth Bodnar

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
NV-Gov 10:00 pm ET

Governor markers

D Aaron Ford · R Joe Lombardo

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
MT-01 10:00 pm ET

US House markers

D Sam Forstag · R Aaron Flint

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
NV-02 10:00 pm ET

US House markers

D Teresa F. Benitez-Thompson · R David Flippo

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
OR-Sen 11:00 pm ET

US Senate

D Jeff Merkley · R David Brock Smith

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
OR-Gov 11:00 pm ET

Governor markers

D Tina Kotek · R Christine Drazan

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
CA-22 11:00 pm ET

US House markers

D Randy Villegas · R David Valadao

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
CA-48 11:00 pm ET

US House

D Marni von Wilpert · R Jim Desmond

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
AK-Sen 12:00 am ET

US Senate markers

D Mary Peltola · R Dan S. Sullivan

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
AK-Gov 12:00 am ET

Governor markers

D Jonathan S. "JKT" Kreiss-Tomkins · R Dave Bronson; Treg Taylor; Bernadette M. Wilson

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
AK-HouseChamber12:00 am ET

State House

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
AK-SD-K 12:00 am ET

Alaska Senate District K

D Bill Wielechowski

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
AK-SenateChamber12:00 am ET

State Senate

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN
AK-SupremeCourt 12:00 am ET

Supreme Court (1 seat, retention vote)

I Justice Jude Pate

Results links
State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

About

We collected statements, posted from Oct 27 through Election Day, in which a named analyst says what number would signal a good or bad night for Democrats. Each one was captured from the analyst’s own post, article or podcast. Each card gives the number in a normal form, the analyst’s own tier words, and a quote of 25 words or fewer. Each card is timed to its race’s poll-closing hour from the state’s own election office. The tier tags (Fair / floor, Good night, Great night, Warning sign) are our grouping of the analyst’s words, for filtering only. This page reports what the analysts said; it does not predict.

This build carries 217 markers: 125 bars and 92 point predictions. Headlines are 2 or 3 per hour, ranked by the races named when the checklist was set, races where three or more analysts set bars, and explicit tier words. No analyst appears twice in an hour, and none takes more than 4 headlines across the night.

Analyst mix (affiliation class)
Class	Markers	Analysts
D	7	2
R	3	1
nonpartisan	206	34
unknown	1	1

Balance

Every analyst here is a journalist, forecaster or academic. Strategists of both parties have not been swept yet, so this mix is lopsided by design of what was reachable, not by choice.

Freeze and hash

Built Tue Nov 3 2026, 4:45 PM ET. Frozen at Tue Nov 3 2026, 4:45 PM ET.

SHA-256 of data/markers.csv: 5b2e092d32edd307750812d300b0c695db47a38874d47112b4e70184e811fe97

SHA-256 of data/checklist.csv: 131562c07c1bb092469b08d262d8d4563425105f9e63d5164653fc5d1a974539

Point predictions are scored on the night from the same live results as the summary page: a race prediction when AP calls the race, a seat prediction once the called seats settle it. Bars are not edited after the freeze; the hash lets anyone check that later.